fElon

Elections 98% +$7,716 $164,346 vol · 47 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	96¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$28	win
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?	No	52¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	10¢	0¢	+$285	win
Will Anca Alexandrescu get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	No	98¢	100¢	+$64	win
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	No	92¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will Crin Antonescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Bucharest Mayoral Election: Any Candidate Gets >50% of the Vote?	No	100¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$2	win

Other 89% +$6,310 $241,143 vol · 141 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	+$63	win
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	16¢	16¢	+$9	win
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?	Yes	14¢	4¢	+$3	win
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	31¢	98¢	+$28	win
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	90¢	99¢	+$3	win
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	68¢	3¢	$-73	loss
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	No	50¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	29¢	1¢	+$114	win

Economy 92% +$664 $52,876 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
US recession in 2025?	No	95¢	100¢	+$18	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$86	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$68	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	+$31	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-998	loss
Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?	Yes	56¢	100¢	+$597	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$240	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$49	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$45	win

Weather 98% +$189 $17,105 vol · 44 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on April 7?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 6?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 5?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 4?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29?	No	94¢	100¢	+$88	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 29?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-96	loss
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 28?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 27?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on March 26?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Crypto 100% +$70 $12,324 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Marc Marquez win the 2025 MotoGP Netherlands?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Marco Bezzecchi win the 2025 MotoGP Netherlands?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Finance 100% +$7 $173 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30?	Down	12¢	0¢	+$6	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23?	Down	48¢	100¢	+$1	win

Politics 83% $-175 $66,983 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21?	No	97¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will no house vote on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill occur by December 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2025?	Yes	98¢	0¢	$-57	loss
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	71¢	0¢	+$5	win
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?	No	94¢	100¢	+$63	win
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?	No	4¢	0¢	$-470	loss

Geopolitics 80% $-2,023 $18,092 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?	No	81¢	100¢	+$0	—
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27?	No	97¢	100¢	+$72	win
US military action against Iran before July?	Yes	35¢	100¢	+$315	win
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?	No	91¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-2,426	loss

Sports 91% $-4,194 $125,120 vol · 110 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	3¢	7¢	$-0	loss
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	9¢	30¢	+$18	win
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	84¢	90¢	$-137	loss
Will Alexander Albon achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton?	Hamilton	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	No	91¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Bu Xiangzhi win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Shant Sargsyan win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Yes	8¢	0¢	+$21	win