Win rate
70.0%
1073 W / 461 L
Total PnL
$121,707
realized $28,393 · unrealized $93,314
Portfolio
$93,314
volume $3,870,892
Predictions
2,108
21.8/day · avg $1,836
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/06/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 74% +$64,391
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 6¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 47¢ | 58¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | No | 54¢ | 70¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat? | No | 4¢ | 8¢ | +$243 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat? | Yes | 13¢ | 16¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
Other 73% +$25,065
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Plasma reach $1.80 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 9¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$987 | win |
| Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion before 2027? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$328 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 93¢ | +$295 | win |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 94¢ | +$133 | win |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | No | 39¢ | 70¢ | +$14 | win |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 23¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 88¢ | +$48 | win |
Politics 65% +$22,537
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5¢ | 7¢ | +$159 | win |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 72¢ | +$7 | win |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | No | 51¢ | 56¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
Geopolitics 58% +$1,238
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 47¢ | 94¢ | +$136 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 71¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Senator Eichorn guilty of soliciting a child? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$371 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$129 | win |
Economy 82% +$1,105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Unemployment rate over 4.2% in September? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$881 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Unemployment rate over 4.2% in August? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | win |
Crypto 65% +$822
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | No | 61¢ | 84¢ | +$146 | win |
| Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will stablecoins hit $400B by December 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin ETFs attract more flows in 2025 than in 2024? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| USDT depeg in 2025? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Tether insolvent in 2025? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 56% +$817
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Hilton Worldwide (HLT) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Cloudflare (NET) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will S&P Global (SPGI) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 84¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025? | No | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Workday (WDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
Sports 83% +$815
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Brooks Rogowski be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? | No | 53¢ | 95¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 46¢ | 48¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 22¢ | 26¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | +$172 | win |
| Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will France record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Super Bowl LX have between 124M and 128M viewers? | Yes | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | win |
Weather 79% +$695
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | No | 36¢ | 64¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will a hurricane form by May 31? | No | 93¢ | 96¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will a hurricane form by May 31? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-248 | loss |
| Cat 3+ hurricane hits Miami in 2025? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$473 | win |
Esports 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 62% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple reach $280 in January? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Charlie Kirk be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Passings? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Amazon reach $248 in November? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Tesla dip to $420 in November? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google dip to $260 in November? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Google dip to $235 in November? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tesla dip to $420 in November? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 14? | Down | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 0% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$612 | $1,430 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$172 | $190 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? | Yes | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $132 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 40.8¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $163 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | $-115 | $260 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | $309 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ralph Gonsalves be the next Prime Minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines? | No | 69.9¢ | 100¢ | +$174 | $408 | 31/03/2026 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 47.0¢ | 55¢ | +$78 | $141 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 30% by March 31? | No | 44.7¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $122 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $29 | 31/03/2026 |
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? | No | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | $125 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | +$23 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 16¢ | +$33 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Yes | 35.5¢ | 83¢ | +$347 | $923 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 2¢ | +$316 | $172 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | $931 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election? | No | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$237 | $990 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | No | 46.6¢ | 98¢ | +$169 | $692 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $2,407 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 10.9¢ | 0¢ | +$142 | $63 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 17.2¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $57 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $203 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $121 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $1,344 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election? | Yes | 50.6¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $248 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Sébastien Delogu win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $195 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 10–15%? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $899 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | No | 83.8¢ | 94¢ | +$10 | $147 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 14.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $88 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Erwann Davoux win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $141 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $49 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $249 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | No | 49.5¢ | 17¢ | +$4 | $505 | 22/03/2026 |
| Right-Wing Wave in French Mayoral Elections? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $124 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 15–20%? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $545 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 3.2¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | No | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $88 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | $-48 | $148 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $510 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre? | No | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | $359 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre? | Yes | 29.3¢ | 0¢ | $-273 | $579 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | +$666 | $724 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois? | Yes | 36.3¢ | 100¢ | +$503 | $1,205 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Darren Bailey win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 41.7¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $31 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will James Mendrick win the 2026 Illinois Governor Republican primary election? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $20 | 17/03/2026 |