Win rate
47.8%
174 W / 190 L
Total PnL
$-44
realized $-591 · unrealized $547
Portfolio
$547
volume $242,628
Predictions
755
7.3/day · avg $321
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 10/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 53% +$930
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 16¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 22¢ | 34¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 51¢ | 64¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | No | 82¢ | 90¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 10¢ | +$20 | win |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 4¢ | +$13 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 18¢ | 6¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Geopolitics 46% +$91
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 30¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 24¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Leadership Change | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | +$28 | win |
Weather 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18? | Yes | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Culture 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
Finance 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 84¢ | 72¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 14% $-59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 54¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 57¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 8¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 8¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Yes | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Crypto 50% $-158
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 14¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 22¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Down | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET | Up | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | Down | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Up | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Down | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET | Up | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Up | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Down | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-593
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-311 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $62 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $21 | 16/04/2026 |
| RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Score | No | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | FC Bayern München | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Down | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 13/04/2026 |
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 | Under | 40.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $20 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | No | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 28.9¢ | 100¢ | +$383 | $260 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $108 | 10/04/2026 |
| FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 | Over | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 09/04/2026 |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | Paris Saint-Germain FC | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $34 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 48.5¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | $121 | 07/04/2026 |
| SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $51 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of February 22-28, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $151 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $70 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | $32 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026? | No | 45.3¢ | 100¢ | +$465 | $423 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $526 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $481 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 34.5¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $105 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Japan win on 2026-03-31? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026? | Yes | 33.2¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 57.2¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $363 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | +$16 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 73.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $96 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $224 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 15.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 37.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 33.5¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | Yes | 47.9¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $65 | 31/03/2026 |