Win rate
43.5%
10 W / 13 L
Total PnL
$319
realized $-373 · unrealized $692
Portfolio
$692
volume $29,141
Predictions
32
1.0/day · avg $911
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Finance 100% +$186
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 73¢ | +$186 | win |
Other 50% +$170
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $-35 | loss |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | No | 47¢ | 77¢ | +$216 | win |
| Will VIX close above 50 by June 30? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12¢ | 2¢ | $-234 | loss |
| Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Elections 100% +$71
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
Sports 33% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 16¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 18¢ | 15¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 49¢ | 57¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 0% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 26¢ | $-8 | loss |
Politics 0% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 17¢ | $-10 | loss |
Economy 50% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 65¢ | 74¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $-10 | loss |
Geopolitics 33% $-14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Esports 0% $-74
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
Recent Trades (23)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | +$38 | $122 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $28 | 22/03/2026 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $74 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision? | No | 33.6¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | $62 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February? | Yes | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 12.2¢ | 2¢ | $-234 | $449 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 1¢ | $-28 | $39 | 11/06/2026 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 57¢ | $-1 | $49 | 16/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 4¢ | $-10 | $70 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will VIX close above 50 by June 30? | No | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $74 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 15¢ | $-5 | $35 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 16¢ | +$11 | $22 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6.9¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | $21 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 12¢ | $-23 | $75 | 29/07/2026 |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | No | 46.5¢ | 77¢ | +$216 | $332 | 31/12/2026 |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | Yes | 23.8¢ | 17¢ | $-10 | $36 | 31/12/2026 |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 49.8¢ | 73¢ | +$186 | $249 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 9.2¢ | 36¢ | +$127 | $46 | 31/12/2026 |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 26¢ | $-8 | $21 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 18¢ | $-35 | $588 | 31/12/2026 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 65.0¢ | 74¢ | +$19 | $130 | 31/01/2027 |