Win rate
68.4%
26 W / 12 L
Total PnL
$152
realized $-1,886 · unrealized $2,038
Portfolio
$2,038
volume $21,103
Predictions
33
1.0/day · avg $639
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 90% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| X banned in U.K. by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Mentions 100% +$54
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 100% +$47
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 50% +$9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Crypto 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Economy 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 33% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
Geopolitics 0% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 75% $-41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 88¢ | 78¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Recent Trades (38)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $84 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $743 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $377 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $384 | 31/03/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $314 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $384 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $213 | 31/03/2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $355 | 31/03/2026 |
| X banned in U.K. by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $386 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $240 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $350 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $291 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $341 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $345 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $251 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $265 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $354 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $354 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $122 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $206 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | $212 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 96.4¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | $212 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 95.0¢ | 94¢ | $-3 | $205 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 96.7¢ | 97¢ | $-4 | $1,020 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? | No | 93.0¢ | 95¢ | +$15 | $998 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 96.8¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | $205 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99.2¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $206 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99.2¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $205 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | No | 95.8¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | $185 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $531 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $206 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | No | 99.5¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $213 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $213 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in April 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $482 | 01/05/2026 |
| Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $437 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $1,193 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $423 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87.8¢ | 78¢ | $-88 | $588 | 07/06/2026 |