Win rate
58.5%
1641 W / 1163 L
Total PnL
$232,729
realized $122,106 · unrealized $110,623
Portfolio
$110,623
volume $10,439,918
Predictions
3,365
8.8/day · avg $3,102
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/06/2022 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 59% +$103,537
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? | No | 59¢ | 72¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? | Yes | 39¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? | No | 90¢ | 88¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? | Yes | 79¢ | 97¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? | Yes | 13¢ | 11¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | No | 40¢ | 16¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Silver (SI) settle over $110 on the final trading day of June 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 22¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? | Yes | 12¢ | 19¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $-196 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? | Yes | 61¢ | 52¢ | $-2,881 | loss |
Tech 62% +$77,875
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft dip to $375 in April? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $330 end of April? | Yes | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Tesla dip to $330 in March? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Amazon dip to $208 in March? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google dip to $275 in March? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$408 | win |
| Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Amazon dip to $192 in March? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | win |
| Will Google reach $320 in March? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Crypto 50% +$39,280
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 50¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 22¢ | $-146 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 50¢ | +$496 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 61¢ | +$149 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $-12 | loss |
| First to 5k: Gold or ETH? | Gold | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$394 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 20? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 9? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 by December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Politics 60% +$28,238
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 33¢ | 40¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | loss |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | Yes | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$569 | win |
| Will all of Trump's children attend the State of the Union? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-883 | loss |
| Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Trump deport less than 250,000? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 62% +$5,846
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 8¢ | 15¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Netflix reach $105 in March? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-310 | loss |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $100? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-185 | loss |
| Will Netflix dip to $70 in February? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-502 | loss |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of February? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$5,887 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $90? | Yes | 2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,997 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of February? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $80? | No | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 9 – Feb 13? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
Economy 62% +$2,788
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in 2025? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | Yes | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$531 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-268 | loss |
| Will the November unemployment rate be 4.3% or more? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | win |
| Will the November unemployment rate be 4.1%? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-300 | loss |
Culture 70% +$684
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
| Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
| Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year? | Yes | 13¢ | 100¢ | +$412 | win |
| Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
Mentions 33% $-143
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | loss |
| Will "China" be said 15 or more times in the 2nd RNC primary debate? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will anyone say "Alien" in the RNC primary debate on August 23? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Weather 58% $-2,196
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-1,521 | loss |
| Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-219 | loss |
| Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-758 | loss |
| Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Geopolitics 31% $-3,030
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-498 | loss |
| Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-318 | loss |
| Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-124 | loss |
| Will Ashley Moody be appointed as the next Florida senator? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2023? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will "Ukraine" be said 10 or more times in the 3rd RNC primary debate? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
Elections 49% $-8,592
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-277 | loss |
| Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-1,200 | loss |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-512 | loss |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-478 | loss |
| Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-348 | loss |
| Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-1,086 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of April 13 2026? | Yes | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $239 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon reach $216 in March? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4,701 | $7,114 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Google dip to $275 in March? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$408 | $392 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA dip to $164 in March? | No | 78.6¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $768 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon dip to $192 in March? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $172 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Google reach $320 in March? | No | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $148 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? | Yes | 36.2¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $65 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Tesla dip to $330 in March? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $93 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon dip to $208 in March? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $313 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | $130 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA reach $208 in March? | Yes | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $-388 | $388 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 0¢ | $-153 | $153 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix reach $105 in March? | Yes | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | $-310 | $309 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Tesla dip to $375 in March? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-339 | $339 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Amazon reach $224 in March? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-193 | $193 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 34.7¢ | 100¢ | +$14,420 | $11,508 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 31.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5,675 | $2,943 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3,463 | $11,918 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? | Yes | 32.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,819 | $1,330 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2,741 | $448 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 72.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,234 | $6,972 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March? | No | 50.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,868 | $1,905 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? | No | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,746 | $5,538 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | Yes | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,581 | $6,277 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,322 | $10,920 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 68.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,098 | $2,419 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 end of March? | No | 41.2¢ | 100¢ | +$885 | $629 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 100¢ | +$875 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | No | 56.7¢ | 100¢ | +$593 | $776 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? | No | 58.7¢ | 100¢ | +$499 | $709 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 71.9¢ | 100¢ | +$490 | $1,255 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March? | Yes | 64.5¢ | 100¢ | +$457 | $830 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 100¢ | +$423 | $215 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of March? | No | 55.6¢ | 100¢ | +$414 | $912 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of March? | No | 49.2¢ | 100¢ | +$407 | $608 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$319 | $607 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$304 | $1,421 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of March? | No | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | +$246 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | $318 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of March? | No | 50.8¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $227 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$192 | $700 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$184 | $1,090 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$176 | $2,302 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of March? | No | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$166 | $701 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of March? | No | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | $156 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $1,152 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,750 in March? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $855 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of March? | No | 66.3¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $184 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of March? | No | 38.8¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |