Win rate
39.1%
66 W / 103 L
Total PnL
$-1,929
realized $-2,755 · unrealized $826
Portfolio
$826
volume $214,658
Predictions
407
6.6/day · avg $527
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 45% +$47
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 34¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
Tech 100% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
Sports 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Finance 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Up | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 0% $-89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 25¢ | 19¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
Geopolitics 52% $-166
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 84¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 96¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 51¢ | 6¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 33% $-292
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 15¢ | 8¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 12¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 52¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 50¢ | 1¢ | +$8 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Crypto 20% $-999
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin -12% daily candle change in 2026? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 32¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$91 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET | Down | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET | Down | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Up | 77¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | Up | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Up | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Up | 9¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $331 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 51.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $47 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 93¢ | +$5 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $79 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 18.3¢ | 0¢ | +$98 | $509 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 63.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $47 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $611 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 33.5¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | $101 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 26.8¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $250 | 07/04/2026 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | Yes | 54.3¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $57 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 30.4¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Luigi Mangione smile during next court appearance? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-33 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | $155 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? | No | 86.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | +$91 | $34 | 01/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET | Down | 36.5¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | $97 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $310 | 28/02/2026 |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $62 | 28/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9PM ET | Down | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 23/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET | Up | 77.3¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 23/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET | Down | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 22/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | Up | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $48 | 21/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Up | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $53 | 21/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Up | 8.8¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | $24 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | Down | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $44 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET | Up | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET | Down | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET | Up | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Down | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET | Down | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 19/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Down | 39.5¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $22 | 18/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | Up | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 18/02/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? | Up | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $96 | 17/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | $57 | 17/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET | Up | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 15/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET | Up | 21.3¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | No | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$344 | $44 | 13/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $30 | 13/02/2026 |