JoE

Tech 71% +$617 $22,190 vol · 87 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	38¢	100¢	+$33	win
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?	No	82¢	100¢	+$9	win
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	63¢	100¢	+$67	win
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?	No	99¢	100¢	$-113	loss
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	93¢	100¢	+$2	win

Weather 77% +$471 $17,865 vol · 245 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$49	win
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?	No	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$3	win
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?	No	91¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in September 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 79-80°F on September 3?	No	85¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on September 2?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on September 1?	No	100¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.10ºC in August 2025?	Yes	17¢	0¢	+$67	win
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95ºC and 0.99ºC in August 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	$-34	loss

Esports 70% +$335 $6,250 vol · 62 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs	Tundra Esports	67¢	100¢	+$33	win
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs	Vitality	94¢	100¢	+$17	win
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Anyones Legend	95¢	100¢	+$14	win
LoL: LNG Esports vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner	LNG Esports	96¢	100¢	+$7	win
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner	Oh My God	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner	LNG Esports	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	T1	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)	Spirit	51¢	100¢	+$31	win
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)	MOUZ	68¢	100¢	+$16	win
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3)	MOUZ	36¢	0¢	+$9	win

Culture 55% +$163 $28,915 vol · 145 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	No	48¢	42¢	+$2	win
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	$-83	loss
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	95¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	85¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Frankenstein win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Chase Infiniti win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Adam Sandler win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Finance 83% $-340 $1,135 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$7	win
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the next James Bond be British?	No	52¢	100¢	+$22	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	No	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	83¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Florian Lipowitz win the Tour de France 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	$-372	loss

Elections 38% $-1,499 $94,401 vol · 287 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	76¢	81¢	$-8	loss
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	93¢	94¢	$-34	loss
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	3¢	100¢	+$477	win
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	69¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	99¢	100¢	$-133	loss
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	64¢	82¢	+$0	—
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	78¢	84¢	+$37	win
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026?	No	79¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	No	64¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Geopolitics 64% $-1,684 $47,035 vol · 264 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	23¢	0¢	+$26	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	51¢	70¢	+$5	win
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	No	93¢	90¢	$-9	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	97¢	100¢	$-14	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	63¢	82¢	$-34	loss
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	56¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	98¢	98¢	$-98	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	33¢	0¢	$-48	loss

Economy 35% $-1,686 $31,977 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?	No	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	96¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$-119	loss
US recession in 2025?	No	76¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be over 5.0%?	No	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%?	No	84¢	100¢	+$19	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	$-15	loss
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	No	97¢	100¢	+$9	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$26	win

Crypto 51% $-2,422 $283,057 vol · 899 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	46¢	95¢	+$0	—
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament?	No	98¢	100¢	$-105	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	$-25	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?	No	87¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 8?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 7?	No	66¢	100¢	+$31	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 6?	No	80¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 5?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win

Politics 50% $-3,056 $76,556 vol · 325 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	98¢	98¢	$-23	loss
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	97¢	99¢	$-62	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$364	win
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$48	win
Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	86¢	92¢	+$4	win
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	90¢	100¢	$-147	loss
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-56	loss

Mentions 39% $-4,708 $167,095 vol · 565 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in April 2026?	No	98¢	99¢	$-17	loss
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in March 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-110	loss
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$1	win

Other 49% $-6,059 $287,575 vol · 1449 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $16M committed to the Space public sale?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 20–30 years in prison?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the US strike Cuba next?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	No	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	No	75¢	97¢	$-7	loss
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Yes	39¢	0¢	+$10	win
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-23	loss
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	99¢	100¢	$-39	loss
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	99¢	99¢	$-160	loss

Sports 46% $-16,051 $284,451 vol · 890 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	75¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	No	96¢	87¢	+$0	—
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	99¢	100¢	$-67	loss
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	97¢	97¢	$-83	loss
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	3¢	15¢	+$374	win
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1,091	loss
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	99¢	100¢	$-179	loss
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	98¢	100¢	$-229	loss
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	No	99¢	100¢	$-48	loss
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets	Bruins	47¢	100¢	+$114	win