Win rate
72.5%
37 W / 14 L
Total PnL
$-137
realized $-741 · unrealized $603
Portfolio
$603
volume $68,457
Predictions
1,341
21.8/day · avg $51
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$187
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 30¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Other 72% +$137
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 37¢ | 48¢ | +$17 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the next Pope be in favor of the German “Synodal Way”? | Yes | 50¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 83% +$99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 40¢ | 28¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 75% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 0% $-24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Crypto 70% $-39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 10? | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET | Up | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? | Down | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | Down | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 20? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | No | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 27.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $26 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $36 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $29 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $158 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 39.8¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $128 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $565 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $63 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 68.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $178 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 56.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? | Yes | 55.7¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 31.8¢ | 100¢ | $-51 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 38.3¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $124 | 25/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? | Yes | 29.4¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $47 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Oman again in March? | No | 37.8¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $37 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $26 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | No | 19.8¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $46 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, 2026? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 11/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 10? | Down | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $52 | 10/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET | Up | 86.5¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $45 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? | Yes | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $36 | 09/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 9? | Down | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $47 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9? | No | 35.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $54 | 09/02/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET | Down | 66.6¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $52 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 69.2¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 20? | Yes | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $42 | 20/10/2025 |
| Will the next Pope be in favor of the German “Synodal Way”? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | $20 | 31/05/2025 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: May | No | 37.5¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/05/2025 |
| Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $30 | 05/05/2025 |
| Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $20 | 07/04/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $30 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $20 | 31/12/2024 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $216 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 28¢ | $-2 | $44 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 41.7¢ | 30¢ | $-8 | $29 | 22/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 51.7¢ | 52¢ | +$15 | $58 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $43 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? | No | 31.9¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 36.6¢ | 36¢ | +$19 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $38 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 73.2¢ | 84¢ | +$9 | $60 | 20/05/2026 |
| Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 34.7¢ | 49¢ | +$12 | $28 | 20/05/2026 |
| Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 37.2¢ | 48¢ | +$17 | $44 | 20/05/2026 |