Win rate
51.4%
94 W / 89 L
Total PnL
$1,223
realized $-18,918 · unrealized $20,141
Portfolio
$20,141
volume $279,268
Predictions
206
8.2/day · avg $1,356
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 52% +$1,342
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 79¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 78¢ | 88¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$8 | win |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 72¢ | $-7 | loss |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-9 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 88¢ | $-20 | loss |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 64¢ | 55¢ | $-30 | loss |
Finance 67% +$934
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ledger IPO before 2027? | Yes | 57¢ | 24¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Ledger IPO before 2027? | No | 57¢ | 76¢ | +$927 | win |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
Elections 25% +$369
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 55¢ | 55¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 87¢ | 85¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 56% and 57%? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-921 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Melania say "Foster" or "Fostering" 7+ times during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80¢ | 80¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
Politics 64% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 58¢ | +$64 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | 61¢ | 66¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30? | No | 69¢ | 81¢ | +$11 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 87¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
Culture 0% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
Tech 67% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 63¢ | 62¢ | $-1 | loss |
| OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? | No | 75¢ | 96¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
Weather 0% $-30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Other 41% $-38
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$148 | win |
| Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 61¢ | 56¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 80¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | No | 38¢ | 34¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 67¢ | 60¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 78¢ | 76¢ | $-35 | loss |
| X banned in any European country by December 31? | No | 81¢ | 76¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 47¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 0% $-263
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 70¢ | 55¢ | $-263 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.1¢ | 98¢ | +$34 | $673 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 86.8¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $91 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $401 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | $116 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $245 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | $-164 | $284 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 60.2¢ | 0¢ | $-189 | $500 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $356 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | $200 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82.0¢ | 86¢ | $-3 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 85¢ | $-24 | $90 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 24.6¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $65 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | +$355 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $74 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $182 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $50 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026? | No | 73.3¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $167 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 14.1¢ | 100¢ | +$256 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 10.7¢ | 100¢ | +$252 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $804 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $275 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $980 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $505 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $578 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $950 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $190 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $128 | 31/03/2026 |
| Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $188 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $156 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $443 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $158 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $237 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $830 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $461 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $340 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 78.0¢ | 78¢ | $-8 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $115 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 80.0¢ | 80¢ | $-10 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Nothing | 57.3¢ | 62¢ | $-13 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $247 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $272 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $689 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? | No | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026? | No | 42.9¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | $-86 | $190 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 62.4¢ | 0¢ | $-207 | $208 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-228 | $640 | 31/03/2026 |