Gaadi

Politics 56% +$40 $2,392 vol · 32 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in April?	No	3¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?	Yes	26¢	14¢	$-38	loss
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	Yes	84¢	80¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump post "Lisa" this week on Truth Social?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	No	5¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$18	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	No	3¢	0¢	$-115	loss
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Weather 100% +$0 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on March 28?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Finance 0% $-2 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	54¢	40¢	$-2	loss

Culture 67% $-8 $140 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	8¢	2¢	$-39	loss
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?	No	74¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$14	win

Elections 33% $-273 $385 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?	Yes	38¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?	No	37¢	0¢	$-250	loss

Sports 23% $-338 $1,249 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	No	6¢	1¢	$-44	loss
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	Yes	27¢	5¢	$-21	loss
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$-1	loss
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	48¢	69¢	+$44	win
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Magic vs. Celtics	Magic	30¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers	Clippers	36¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Mavericks vs. Spurs	Mavericks	10¢	0¢	$-204	loss
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$59	win
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-35	loss

Geopolitics 45% $-727 $6,941 vol · 42 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	42¢	66¢	+$55	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	32¢	10¢	+$10	win
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	46¢	18¢	$-429	loss
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$117	win
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$17	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	0¢	0¢	+$15	win
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$8	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	52¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?	No	26¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?	No	22¢	0¢	$-37	loss

Other 40% $-1,002 $1,308 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?	No	67¢	75¢	+$3	win
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?	No	32¢	36¢	+$7	win
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-484	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	57¢	22¢	$-58	loss
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	53¢	24¢	$-47	loss
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-396	loss
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines	Connecticut Huskies	10¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Algeria vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score	No	83¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?	Yes	47¢	100¢	+$35	win

Tech 0% $-1,627 $1,627 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?	No	39¢	0¢	$-1,234	loss