20260405

Crypto 56% +$10,189 $108,213 vol · 1390 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	14¢	100¢	+$277	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	48¢	100¢	+$160	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	34¢	100¢	+$117	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	31¢	100¢	+$87	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	54¢	100¢	+$86	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	58¢	100¢	+$68	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	57¢	100¢	+$65	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	62¢	100¢	+$65	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	66¢	100¢	+$52	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	51¢	100¢	+$51	win

Esports 57% +$2,962 $22,999 vol · 138 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner	Bushido Wildcats	36¢	100¢	+$117	win
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5	Over	92¢	100¢	+$10	win
LoL: EKO Esports vs Colossal Gaming (BO1) - LIT Regular Season	Colossal Gaming	79¢	100¢	$-4	loss
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner	SU Esports	14¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5	Under	53¢	0¢	$-32	loss
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Lodis (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season	Barcząca Esports	21¢	0¢	$-43	loss
LoL: EKO Esports vs Colossal Gaming (BO1) - LIT Regular Season	EKO Esports	33¢	0¢	$-88	loss
LoL: VfB eSports vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season	VfB eSports	51¢	100¢	+$128	win
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs	Inner Circle	66¢	0¢	$-83	loss
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs	South America Rejects	64¢	0¢	$-31	loss

Geopolitics 73% +$2,677 $39,207 vol · 73 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	45¢	74¢	$-4	loss
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	40¢	30¢	+$16	win
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$5	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	89¢	98¢	+$5	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	28¢	100¢	+$54	win
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	57¢	82¢	+$50	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	27¢	100¢	+$44	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	74¢	+$51	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	16¢	1¢	$-23	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	27¢	6¢	+$15	win

Politics 62% +$196 $4,821 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	80¢	85¢	+$1	win
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by April 30, 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?	Yes	21¢	16¢	$-19	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	48¢	30¢	$-70	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	37¢	50¢	+$7	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	43¢	86¢	+$56	win
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?	No	64¢	90¢	+$8	win
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? (April 19)	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$12	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	87¢	100¢	+$219	win

Weather 67% +$31 $806 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?	Yes	76¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-11?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-11?	No	32¢	0¢	+$31	win
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5	Over	11¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5	Under	53¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)	Sporting Kansas City	65¢	0¢	$-97	loss
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 9?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$65	win
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 9?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7?	Yes	38¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?	No	91¢	100¢	+$6	win

Finance 100% +$8 $998 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	91¢	92¢	+$1	win
Will Ally Financial (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will PNC (PNC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$5	win

Culture 75% +$2 $119 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Campinas: Gustavo Heide vs Pedro Boscardin Dias	Gustavo Heide	82¢	100¢	+$5	win
Campinas: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Alvaro Guillen Meza	Pedro Boscardin Dias	64¢	100¢	+$3	win
Campinas: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Alvaro Guillen Meza	Alvaro Guillen Meza	33¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Campinas: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Murkel Dellien	Pedro Boscardin Dias	75¢	100¢	+$3	win

Elections 60% $-55 $711 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	81¢	99¢	$-9	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	21¢	$-93	loss
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$39	win

Tech 33% $-706 $947 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Blaublitz Akita vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5	Under	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 76000?	Yes	90¢	98¢	$-270	loss

Sports 54% $-1,434 $44,678 vol · 456 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff	Coco Gauff	34¢	36¢	+$28	win
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	59¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	29¢	0¢	$-108	loss
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles	Arizona Diamondbacks	39¢	100¢	+$15	win
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Cleveland Guardians	13¢	0¢	$-305	loss
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	83¢	100¢	+$23	win
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	53¢	100¢	+$270	win
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Washington Nationals	34¢	100¢	+$112	win
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	59¢	100¢	+$93	win
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Minnesota Twins	44¢	100¢	+$50	win

Other 55% $-1,474 $186,801 vol · 1260 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	28¢	34¢	+$17	win
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	Yes	55¢	26¢	$-45	loss
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	92¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	37¢	40¢	+$254	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	68¢	41¢	$-5	loss
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$284	win
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	74¢	0¢	+$23	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	45¢	38¢	$-19	loss
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	24¢	7¢	$-39	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	31¢	62¢	+$48	win