Win rate
73.3%
563 W / 205 L
Total PnL
$-458
realized $-46,003 · unrealized $45,545
Portfolio
$45,545
volume $1,376,865
Predictions
909
20.5/day · avg $1,515
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 76% +$3,861
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 74¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 83¢ | 64¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | loss |
| Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$165 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$140 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 37¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
| Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Elections 85% +$1,121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | +$48 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 44¢ | 64¢ | +$662 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 81¢ | 86¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 46¢ | 44¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 77¢ | 86¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 53¢ | 56¢ | +$3 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 47¢ | 52¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 80¢ | 66¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 63¢ | 66¢ | +$13 | win |
Esports 55% +$754
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | Spirit | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | loss |
| LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner | Gen.G | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-197 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | Astralis | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner | Paper Rex | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-224 | loss |
| LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H | FN Esports | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-427 | loss |
| Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner | Paper Rex | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-713 | loss |
| Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs | Paper Rex | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | loss |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage | Team Spirit | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$1,129 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | Astralis | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$926 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | FaZe | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-1,004 | loss |
Politics 77% +$640
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | +$250 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-144 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$290 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$11 | win |
Sports 63% +$560
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 78¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 11¢ | 2¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims) | MarQuel Mederos | 47¢ | 50¢ | +$3 | win |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Flyers vs. Sharks | Sharks | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-180 | loss |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) | Brad Tavares | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-243 | loss |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | Thunder | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$754 | win |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Gen.G | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Tech 64% +$237
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | +$107 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-1,039 | loss |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28? | Down | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
Economy 67% +$151
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-297 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-301 | loss |
Culture 82% +$44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | No | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
Finance 78% $-99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Deel IPO by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-286 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
Crypto 75% $-831
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 42¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 60¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 97¢ | +$5 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
Geopolitics 71% $-8,176
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$297 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-826 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Dplus KIA | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $87 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 45.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,477 | $2,698 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 67.5¢ | 100¢ | +$289 | $697 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $923 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $721 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $48 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $72 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22.6¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 23.4¢ | 0¢ | $-315 | $330 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 75.1¢ | 0¢ | $-2,682 | $3,266 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $3,612 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 58.8¢ | 91¢ | +$306 | $826 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 61.1¢ | 9¢ | $-288 | $335 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.9¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $43 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 13/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $1,005 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $365 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $47 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims) | MarQuel Mederos | 46.9¢ | 50¢ | +$3 | $41 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $128 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $51 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 83.0¢ | 99¢ | +$869 | $4,399 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 24.5¢ | 1¢ | $-477 | $518 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 99¢ | +$181 | $2,059 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 1¢ | $-75 | $104 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $116 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | $6,488 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 11/04/2026 |
| LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | T1 | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $31 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-43 | $2,283 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $81 | 10/04/2026 |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner | KT Rolster | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $125 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,398 | $9,300 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $746 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 40.6¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $57 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 59.4¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 74.3¢ | 0¢ | $-7,781 | $8,178 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 55.0¢ | 8¢ | $-183 | $358 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 92¢ | +$200 | $895 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $235 | 06/04/2026 |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | BNK FEARX | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 65.2¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $239 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 82.6¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $269 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $47 | 01/04/2026 |