Win rate
88.9%
32 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$3,172
realized $-73,812 · unrealized $76,984
Portfolio
$76,984
volume $330,099
Predictions
36
0.3/day · avg $9,169
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 20/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 20/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 100% +$2,764
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 88¢ | +$606 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$425 | win |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$98 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$1,083 | win |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Politics 75% +$851
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$532 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$248 | win |
| Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | win |
Elections 100% +$493
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Other 80% $-868
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5,162 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$430 | win |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before October? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$215 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
Recent Trades (36)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 16/02/2026 |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $500 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $129 | 15/01/2026 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5,162 | $62,708 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | No | 89.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,083 | $12,865 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$430 | $7,824 | 31/12/2025 |
| China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$313 | $11,001 | 31/12/2025 |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | $4,985 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | $360 | 31/12/2025 |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? | No | 97.8¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $106 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $102 | 16/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $102 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 05/10/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out before October? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$215 | $3,780 | 30/09/2025 |
| Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $200 | 08/09/2025 |
| Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $336 | 27/07/2025 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $1,165 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $126 | 03/06/2025 |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $257 | 13/05/2025 |
| Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$248 | $5,537 | 29/04/2025 |
| Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $200 | 29/04/2025 |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $953 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $1,700 | 26/01/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$74 | $3,225 | 20/01/2025 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $897 | 31/12/2024 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $1,102 | 30/12/2024 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 58.3¢ | 100¢ | +$344 | $481 | 05/11/2024 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | No | 98.1¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $608 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | No | 93.9¢ | 97¢ | +$98 | $3,510 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 86.1¢ | 78¢ | $-6,625 | $66,518 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 88.7¢ | 92¢ | +$532 | $15,949 | 31/12/2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 82.1¢ | 88¢ | +$606 | $18,022 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 87.4¢ | 91¢ | +$425 | $14,375 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96.3¢ | 96¢ | +$7 | $1,000 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | $100 | 31/12/2026 |