Win rate
73.5%
25 W / 9 L
Total PnL
$4
realized $-895 · unrealized $898
Portfolio
$898
volume $7,197
Predictions
125
4.4/day · avg $58
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 83% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 76¢ | 44¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 100¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
Geopolitics 69% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 86¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 44¢ | +$5 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 51¢ | 91¢ | +$31 | win |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 81¢ | $-4 | loss |
Elections 67% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82¢ | 92¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 62¢ | 85¢ | +$8 | win |
Culture 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m? | Yes | 76¢ | 86¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 70¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
Recent Trades (36)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $410 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $28 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $53 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 61.7¢ | 85¢ | +$8 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 51.3¢ | 91¢ | +$31 | $41 | 07/04/2026 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 53.6¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | $30 | 14/03/2026 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 86.6¢ | 81¢ | $-4 | $51 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | $26 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 86¢ | +$3 | $22 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 44¢ | +$5 | $59 | 22/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 24? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $92 | 24/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 70.4¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | $88 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 86¢ | $-13 | $118 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $78 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $405 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $122 | 30/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 30? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $94 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on April 17, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $106 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $182 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $85 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $93 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $107 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 76.0¢ | 44¢ | $-0 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 51.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 86¢ | $-13 | $101 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | $53 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82.0¢ | 92¢ | $-4 | $32 | 07/06/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $146 | 30/06/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $128 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50.0¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | $416 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | $416 | 07/11/2028 |