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Tech 71% +$6,742 $76,292 vol · 96 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	37¢	71¢	+$327	win
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?	No	84¢	93¢	+$42	win
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	23¢	28¢	+$289	win
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Yes	74¢	61¢	$-200	loss
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	42¢	38¢	$-18	loss
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?	Yes	22¢	19¢	$-9	loss
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	46¢	60¢	+$30	win
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	83¢	92¢	+$2	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	24¢	23¢	$-7	loss

Other 68% +$4,465 $90,560 vol · 155 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	47¢	71¢	+$21	win
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	No	51¢	39¢	$-347	loss
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	22¢	26¢	+$4	win
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	35¢	48¢	+$48	win
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	87¢	86¢	$-1	loss
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?	No	72¢	97¢	+$1	win
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	83¢	56¢	+$88	win
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?	No	40¢	0¢	$-427	loss
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?	No	46¢	98¢	+$6	win
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	Yes	88¢	84¢	+$-0	—

Crypto 75% +$1,063 $3,951 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$1,039	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	52¢	0¢	+$49	win
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will another company be accused of insider trading?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Geopolitics 56% +$375 $13,982 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	26¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	36¢	0¢	+$175	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	58¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	18¢	6¢	$-16	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	7¢	1¢	$-66	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-131	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	31¢	91¢	+$4	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	69¢	9¢	+$3	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	59¢	0¢	$-456	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	75¢	0¢	+$15	win

Politics 77% +$328 $12,220 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-38	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	85¢	90¢	+$31	win
Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$16	win
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	47¢	100¢	+$77	win
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?	No	70¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Trump say "Eight War" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30?	No	35¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$6	win

Finance 67% +$207 $4,543 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	79¢	94¢	+$29	win
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	40¢	12¢	$-591	loss
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	94¢	92¢	+$8	win
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	69¢	5¢	$-45	loss
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$-27	loss
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	4¢	9¢	+$11	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	57¢	0¢	+$49	win

Elections 86% +$129 $1,640 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	8¢	10¢	+$37	win
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	63¢	44¢	$-28	loss
Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Yes	10¢	22¢	+$25	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$10	win

Sports 100% +$59 $655 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Perplexity run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	No	77¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$30	win

Culture 100% +$0 $188 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win

Economy 0% $-3 $30 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	30¢	6¢	$-3	loss