Win rate
63.2%
36 W / 21 L
Total PnL
$894
realized $237 · unrealized $657
Portfolio
$657
volume $48,203
Predictions
86
1.9/day · avg $560
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 62% +$893
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 47¢ | 18¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 74¢ | 70¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 60¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 80¢ | 74¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | No | 63¢ | 46¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Mentions 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 80% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 74¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 87¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 24¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 71% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 51¢ | 91¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 33¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 88¢ | 40¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 57¢ | 99¢ | +$28 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Elections 25% $-49
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 32¢ | 22¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 31¢ | 28¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 99¢ | +$28 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 29.9¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $30 | 10/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 57.8¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 37.7¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | No | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision? | Yes | 46.6¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $50 | 30/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | $50 | 01/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $263 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | 91.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $214 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision? | Yes | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | +$494 | $96 | 23/02/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | Yes | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 17/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $48 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31? | No | 68.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $21 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $26 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? | No | 75.0¢ | 72¢ | $-2 | $50 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 35.6¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $171 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $30 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $38 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | $-124 | $42 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 42.6¢ | 94¢ | +$49 | $40 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $100 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 58.3¢ | 9¢ | $-24 | $40 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 56¢ | +$19 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 85.0¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 62¢ | +$0 | $30 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 61.0¢ | 24¢ | $-24 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 81.7¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 88.0¢ | 40¢ | $-27 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | No | 63.3¢ | 46¢ | $-27 | $95 | 25/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 74¢ | $-4 | $50 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 87¢ | +$4 | $40 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $161 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $50 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Yes | 25.2¢ | 18¢ | +$15 | $90 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 60.0¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | $60 | 30/06/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | $50 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 28¢ | $-30 | $294 | 31/12/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 70¢ | $-2 | $40 | 31/12/2026 |