Win rate
69.2%
74 W / 33 L
Total PnL
$2,232
realized $-3,171 · unrealized $5,402
Portfolio
$5,402
volume $43,237
Predictions
120
5.0/day · avg $360
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 74% +$2,040
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 45¢ | 84¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 65¢ | 94¢ | +$16 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | No | 74¢ | 93¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 68¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 72¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
Politics 50% +$235
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 77¢ | 88¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 32¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Other 62% +$119
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 67¢ | 59¢ | +$94 | win |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 75¢ | 39¢ | +$9 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 77¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? | No | 89¢ | 58¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 27¢ | 61¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 32¢ | 11¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
Sports 67% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) | Hornets | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Pacers vs. Wizards | Wizards | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Jazz | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Elections 50% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Crypto 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$2 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 76¢ | 78¢ | +$9 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 51.2¢ | 100¢ | +$324 | $340 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $296 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 52.2¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $86 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 77.6¢ | 0¢ | $-187 | $248 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $88 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | No | 70.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 45.9¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | $26 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | $336 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | $169 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 31.7¢ | 90¢ | +$100 | $55 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 38.8¢ | 100¢ | +$573 | $646 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | +$198 | $550 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 63.3¢ | 100¢ | +$186 | $325 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$177 | $546 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 74.4¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $184 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $230 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $319 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 71.6¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $173 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 80.7¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $116 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 66.7¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $41 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $553 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $91 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 31, 2026? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 27.2¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 71.1¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $108 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 16/03/2026 |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $143 | 15/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? | No | 62.7¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $69 | 07/03/2026 |
| Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? | No | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $80 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Jordan in March? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $31 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Jordan in March? | Yes | 90.2¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $105 | 07/03/2026 |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) | Hornets | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $25 | 21/02/2026 |
| Pacers vs. Wizards | Wizards | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $25 | 21/02/2026 |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | Jazz | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 21/02/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? | No | 69.9¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $32 | 31/01/2026 |