Win rate
80.1%
145 W / 36 L
Total PnL
$1,528
realized $726 · unrealized $801
Portfolio
$801
volume $96,501
Predictions
965
15.9/day · avg $100
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 75% +$718
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 36¢ | +$3 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 62¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? | Yes | 15¢ | 8¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 57¢ | 66¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "King" or "Queen" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98¢ | 90¢ | $-5 | loss |
Crypto 98% +$136
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 24? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| 17 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 23? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Ethereum above 2,135 on March 23, 9PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin above 70,200 on March 23, 10PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Ethereum above 2,150 on March 23, 10PM ET? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin above 70,000 on March 24, 11AM ET? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 5AM-6AM ET be the best hourly candle on March 23? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will XRP be the top performing crypto for the week of March 16? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will Solana be the top performing crypto for the week of March 16? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin above 67,800 on March 23, 3AM ET? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Sports 100% +$42
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Florida advance to the Sweet Sixteen? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Purdue advance to the Quarterfinals? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Texas advance to the Quarterfinals? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 72 and 74 million views on day 3? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC West? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Safaera be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Big Game: First TD Scorer Jersey Number O/U 19.5 | Over | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Geopolitics 58% +$40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-4 | loss |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 72¢ | +$10 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 57¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 62¢ | 6¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
Esports 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Chile" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Tech 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Tesla" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 60% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $-92 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$92 | win |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 50% and 52%? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 68% $-48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | No | 77¢ | 81¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Kennedy Center" in April? | Yes | 82¢ | 58¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 19) | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 84¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Child" or "Childhood" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will "Donald" or "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Betis reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will "King" or "Queen" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 90¢ | $-5 | $54 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 84.1¢ | 80¢ | $-1 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $22 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Child" or "Childhood" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 16/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 79.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $28 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Predict" or "Prediction" or "Predicted" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $62 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will "Safety" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $100 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $38 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $58 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Weather" or "Rain" or "Raining" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $27 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $66 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Sam" or "Altman" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $118 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "Dario" or "Amodei" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $63 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "AI" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $55 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will "China" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $21 | 03/04/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 7.9¢ | 0¢ | +$230 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 27.1¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kentucky advance to the Sweet Sixteen? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | Yes | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Florida advance to the Sweet Sixteen? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | No | 48.5¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Jamie" be said 3+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $87 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will "War" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will "Donald" or "Trump" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Purdue advance to the Quarterfinals? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $72 | 28/03/2026 |
| Will Texas advance to the Quarterfinals? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 28/03/2026 |
| Will "Safety" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will "California" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 27/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $59 | 26/03/2026 |
| 8 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 24? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 25/03/2026 |
| 7 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 24? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 25/03/2026 |
| Less than 7 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 24? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 25/03/2026 |
| 10 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 23? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $109 | 24/03/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,135 on March 23, 9PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 24/03/2026 |
| Over 17 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 23? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 24/03/2026 |
| 17 green Bitcoin hourly candles on March 23? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 24/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 70,200 on March 23, 10PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $64 | 24/03/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,150 on March 23, 10PM ET? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $64 | 24/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 70,000 on March 24, 11AM ET? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will 5AM-6AM ET be the best hourly candle on March 23? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29 | 24/03/2026 |
| Will XRP be the top performing crypto for the week of March 16? | Yes | 60.7¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $104 | 23/03/2026 |