Win rate
58.1%
50 W / 36 L
Total PnL
$-10,224
realized $-13,430 · unrealized $3,206
Portfolio
$3,206
volume $480,706
Predictions
86
2.6/day · avg $5,590
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Mentions 100% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Politics 33% $-111
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 8¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-65 | loss |
Sports 0% $-120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 11¢ | $-1 | loss |
Economy 0% $-160
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 26¢ | $-160 | loss |
Other 71% $-167
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 16¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 34¢ | $-133 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$7 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 65¢ | 46¢ | +$24 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 18¢ | 55¢ | $-188 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
Elections 14% $-2,035
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-1,932 | loss |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Geopolitics 64% $-7,648
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-306 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 74¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 30¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 69¢ | +$187 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$421 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-5,773 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 72¢ | 94¢ | +$119 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 68.9¢ | 0¢ | +$176 | $847 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 69.9¢ | 91¢ | +$791 | $2,645 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | $91 | 07/04/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $1,297 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $559 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $2,315 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $712 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $806 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | Yes | 59.9¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | $300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 27.8¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $247 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $852 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $2,131 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $765 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 5.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | $-1,457 | $1,597 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $100 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | Yes | 40.1¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $58 | 13/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $3,294 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $3,450 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $639 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $224 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $170 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $235 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $200 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 25.4¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $155 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 88.6¢ | 0¢ | $-461 | $3,349 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $894 | 26/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $876 | 23/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $1,402 | 18/01/2026 |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $60 | 16/11/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | $1,883 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 71.9¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $375 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 75.5¢ | 54¢ | $-83 | $305 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | No | 69.3¢ | 97¢ | +$170 | $1,022 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 65.4¢ | 46¢ | +$24 | $120 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 65.6¢ | 97¢ | +$20 | $90 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $540 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 60.7¢ | 34¢ | $-57 | $392 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 55¢ | $-188 | $321 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 76¢ | $-1 | $99 | 31/05/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 78.8¢ | 81¢ | +$7 | $239 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | No | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | +$267 | $1,556 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | No | 70.8¢ | 90¢ | +$29 | $168 | 31/05/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 70.9¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | $353 | 31/05/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | +$186 | $2,177 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 72.2¢ | 94¢ | +$119 | $2,304 | 30/06/2026 |