Win rate
35.1%
13 W / 24 L
Total PnL
$-171
realized $-1,204 · unrealized $1,032
Portfolio
$1,032
volume $245,435
Predictions
48
2.0/day · avg $5,113
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Sports 50% +$33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 23¢ | 24¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 40% $-15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 74¢ | 73¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24¢ | 27¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 0% $-43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 15¢ | 10¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $-4 | loss |
Other 25% $-148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | Yes | 12¢ | 3¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $1,758 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $4,045 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $582 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,056 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $2,057 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $1,161 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | $-40 | $2,043 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $160 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $60 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $965 | 04/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $48 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $512 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,136 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 96.1¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $835 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | Yes | 12.1¢ | 3¢ | $-2 | $268 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 95.2¢ | 97¢ | $-19 | $2,277 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88.7¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | $3,097 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | $478 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $2,200 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 97.6¢ | 98¢ | $-11 | $2,191 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $186 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 3¢ | $-4 | $85 | 03/06/2026 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.9¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $1,644 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,032 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $85 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $1,007 | 17/06/2026 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 75.6¢ | 76¢ | $-3 | $2,266 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 23.2¢ | 24¢ | $-9 | $518 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 17.4¢ | 15¢ | $-0 | $103 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 5.6¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | $29 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 96.2¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | $1,000 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 84.6¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | $550 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $1,010 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $51 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15.8¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | $359 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9.9¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | $227 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 4¢ | $-4 | $101 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 10¢ | $-40 | $228 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.8¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,108 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 5.9¢ | 5¢ | $-1 | $66 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | $279 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 3¢ | $-0 | $129 | 09/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89.6¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | $1,649 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | $98 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72.6¢ | 73¢ | +$0 | $1,304 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 93.6¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | $1,031 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16.1¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | $252 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | $154 | 07/11/2028 |