Win rate
71.5%
403 W / 161 L
Total PnL
$-12,973
realized $-14,342 · unrealized $1,369
Portfolio
$1,369
volume $694,872
Predictions
730
11.5/day · avg $952
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/04/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Sports 67% +$253
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 44¢ | 53¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Julia Simon (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 12.5km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Emilien Jacquelin (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 4 X 7.5km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 10km Sprint at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$258 | win |
Other 60% +$85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 68¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | win |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 60¢ | 56¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? | No | 86¢ | 82¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 60¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? | No | 79¢ | 96¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Putin visit China by May 31? | No | 62¢ | 14¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Yes | 78¢ | 98¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season? | Yes | 76¢ | 99¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 41¢ | 40¢ | $-2 | loss |
Mentions 91% +$35
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Culture 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Esports 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Skele vs Mindfreak (BO3) - CCT Oceania Series #4 Playoffs | Skele | 49¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | — |
Tech 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Crypto 85% $-134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 50¢ | $-110 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | Down | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET | Up | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | Up | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET | Down | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | Down | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 52% $-978
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 46¢ | 40¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | No | 40¢ | 38¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Obama" during Monday news conference? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in February? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Geopolitics 71% $-10,261
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 46¢ | 24¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 46¢ | 16¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 57¢ | 70¢ | $-86 | loss |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | No | 46¢ | 46¢ | $-373 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $161 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 59.9¢ | 98¢ | +$36 | $111 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 75.9¢ | 9¢ | +$19 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $97 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 62.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $205 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $33 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $83 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | $-271 | $434 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $103 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $315 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $114 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $133 | 08/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $231 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 86.9¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $1,239 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 21.1¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | $406 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Moon" during Monday news conference? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $38 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? | No | 62.5¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "ISIS" during Monday news conference? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" during Monday news conference? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | $135 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obama" during Monday news conference? | No | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | $77 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $30 | 04/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $536 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 50.8¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $78 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | No | 34.9¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $92 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 88.3¢ | 0¢ | +$585 | $1,984 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$420 | $3,959 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? | No | 18.4¢ | 0¢ | +$408 | $280 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $1,052 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | $1,324 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$155 | $3,167 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $429 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | $1,871 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $1,137 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026? | No | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $373 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 55.6¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $267 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $303 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $189 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $754 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026? | No | 45.1¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026? | No | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 72.4¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $152 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 82.3¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $243 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $134 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026? | No | 36.1¢ | 0¢ | +$38 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |