Win rate
68.0%
53 W / 25 L
Total PnL
$347
realized $-1,043 · unrealized $1,390
Portfolio
$1,390
volume $47,219
Predictions
189
6.4/day · avg $250
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 57% +$1,015
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 38¢ | 16¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 84¢ | +$32 | win |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 23¢ | 26¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 75¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 13¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 56¢ | +$256 | win |
Crypto 100% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET | Down | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 83% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 23¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Joe Biden by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 22¢ | 40¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Economy 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | No | 59¢ | 90¢ | +$7 | win |
Sports 92% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 | Under | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Mavericks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Grizzlies vs. Jazz | Jazz | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Clippers vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Kings | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Raptors vs. Knicks | Knicks | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | 76ers | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Heat vs. Wizards | Heat | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Thunder | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Esports 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner | REKONIX | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Group A | Beşiktaş Esports | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 29% $-545
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 38¢ | $-65 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 60¢ | 59¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 46¢ | 12¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 52¢ | 39¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 44¢ | 38¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Busan: Ilya Ivashka vs Dane Sweeny | Ilya Ivashka | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) | Manchester United FC | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-04-13? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj end in a draw? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-163 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $77 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $1,066 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | $300 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $71 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $87 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET | Down | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $347 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $176 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $176 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $175 | 14/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $27 | 14/04/2026 |
| New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 | Under | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 14/04/2026 |
| New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 | Under | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 14/04/2026 |
| Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner | REKONIX | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $44 | 14/04/2026 |
| Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $67 | 14/04/2026 |
| Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik Group A | Beşiktaş Esports | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $48 | 13/04/2026 |
| Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) | Manchester United FC | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-04-13? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | $208 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-04-13? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-57 | $307 | 13/04/2026 |
| Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: O/U 3.5 | Over | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-76 | $109 | 13/04/2026 |
| Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) | FC Universitatea Cluj | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-131 | $148 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj end in a draw? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-163 | $238 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 72.0¢ | 99¢ | +$38 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 99¢ | +$20 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Up | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $275 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2AM ET | Down | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $284 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $176 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $176 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET | Up | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $210 | 11/04/2026 |
| Grizzlies vs. Jazz | Jazz | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 11/04/2026 |
| Clippers vs. Trail Blazers | Trail Blazers | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 11/04/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Kings | Kings | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $101 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | +$521 | $78 | 10/04/2026 |
| Raptors vs. Knicks | Knicks | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $53 | 10/04/2026 |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | 76ers | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 10/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Wizards | Heat | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 10/04/2026 |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Thunder | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $67 | 09/04/2026 |
| Mavericks vs. Suns | Suns | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $69 | 09/04/2026 |
| Bucks vs. Pistons | Pistons | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $65 | 08/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $85 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 62.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $51 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 68.0¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 83.5¢ | 90¢ | +$14 | $162 | 07/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 69.8¢ | 84¢ | +$9 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 84¢ | +$1 | $80 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 81¢ | +$1 | $50 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 94¢ | +$61 | $772 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | No | 29.0¢ | 26¢ | $-5 | $30 | 20/04/2026 |