Fuentes31

Geopolitics 54% +$18,641 $202,775 vol · 104 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	37¢	0¢	+$438	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	18¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	41¢	76¢	+$4,092	win
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	46¢	0¢	$-361	loss
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	21¢	56¢	+$845	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	79¢	69¢	$-543	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	Yes	29¢	96¢	+$839	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	63¢	54¢	$-120	loss
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	73¢	97¢	+$47	win

Elections 49% +$9,279 $72,712 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-84	loss
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	41¢	+$95	win
Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-300	loss
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	55¢	0¢	$-2,714	loss
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	41¢	43¢	+$118	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	18¢	10¢	$-367	loss
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$760	win
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	34¢	99¢	+$52	win
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$2,506	win
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-216	loss

Other 49% +$7,587 $298,176 vol · 350 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	80¢	96¢	+$2	win
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-209	loss
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	Yes	3¢	3¢	+$2	win
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	77¢	98¢	$-74	loss
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	58¢	68¢	+$330	win
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$-56	loss
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	No	11¢	0¢	$-691	loss
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-1,334	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	59¢	97¢	+$514	win
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	10¢	12¢	$-116	loss

Weather 100% +$11 $113 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 3?	No	91¢	100¢	+$11	win

Tech 0% $-165 $357 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-165	loss

Culture 0% $-207 $207 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-207	loss

Sports 50% $-221 $11,885 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$-105	loss
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-1,200	loss
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)	Saint Denis	64¢	100¢	+$434	win
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Makhachev	74¢	100¢	+$351	win
UEFA Women’s Euro: France vs. Germany (To Advance)	Germany	45¢	100¢	+$1,222	win
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner	Sinner	50¢	100¢	+$1,000	win
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance)	Real Madrid	3¢	0¢	$-62	loss
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance)	Palmeiras	33¢	0¢	$-1,009	loss
FIFA Club World Cup: Dortmund vs. Monterrey (To Advance)	Monterrey	32¢	0¢	$-1,000	loss
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance)	Inter Milan	30¢	0¢	$-500	loss

Politics 64% $-517 $63,541 vol · 309 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	72¢	0¢	$-943	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	55¢	52¢	$-224	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	67¢	48¢	+$0	—
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?	No	60¢	94¢	+$620	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$324	win
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	No	49¢	0¢	$-202	loss
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	No	25¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?	No	56¢	0¢	$-1,000	loss
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize?	Yes	37¢	100¢	+$440	win
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025?	No	27¢	0¢	$-1,011	loss

Economy 33% $-714 $3,234 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	54¢	100¢	$-259	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	5¢	0¢	+$97	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-552	loss

Crypto 52% $-4,123 $182,052 vol · 62 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	No	81¢	100¢	+$174	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	No	91¢	100¢	+$95	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	75¢	0¢	$-191	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	99¢	100¢	+$9	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	14¢	0¢	$-80	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	14¢	0¢	$-426	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	No	67¢	0¢	$-454	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?	No	85¢	0¢	$-5,184	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?	No	70¢	100¢	+$435	win