Ersicolus

Politics 44% +$295 $748 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	26¢	26¢	$-4	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$-11	loss
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?	No	50¢	100¢	+$64	win
Will Trump meet with Kaja Kallas in January 2026?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$107	win
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$34	win
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-34	loss

Other 57% $-48 $763 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	42¢	36¢	+$5	win
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	66¢	40¢	+$2	win
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?	No	22¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?	No	8¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-28	loss

Crypto 0% $-163 $195 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 15-21?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 December 1-7?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 5?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-37	loss

Geopolitics 22% $-553 $2,624 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$23	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	29¢	30¢	+$12	win
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	28¢	18¢	$-6	loss
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	26¢	16¢	$-21	loss
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?	Yes	9¢	4¢	$-45	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	29¢	24¢	$-112	loss
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	Yes	17¢	6¢	$-221	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	10¢	0¢	$-53	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	37¢	7¢	$-3	loss
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-16	loss