Win rate
75.2%
301 W / 99 L
Total PnL
$10,404
realized $6,547 · unrealized $3,857
Portfolio
$3,857
volume $1,862,036
Predictions
410
3.1/day · avg $4,542
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 65% +$4,729
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | Yes | 22¢ | 5¢ | +$362 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 80¢ | 69¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 82¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | 55¢ | 72¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 11¢ | 18¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $-179 | loss |
| Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 73¢ | 51¢ | +$87 | win |
Politics 54% +$2,346
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 16¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$627 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 28¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-318 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-1,513 | loss |
Geopolitics 66% +$1,920
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 60¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | $-288 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$217 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | 27¢ | 4¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | No | 15¢ | 42¢ | +$160 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$150 | win |
| Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Sports 17% +$1,528
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | JD Gaming | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | JD Gaming | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Karmine Corp | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-107 | loss |
| LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Karmine Corp | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | JD Gaming | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$1,904 | win |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-232 | loss |
| Will Ebba Andersson (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Skiathlon at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | loss |
Finance 80% +$1,171
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 68¢ | 94¢ | +$668 | win |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | Yes | 53¢ | 44¢ | +$18 | win |
| NYSE trading floor opening delayed Monday? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$520 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | $-130 | loss |
Esports 50% +$242
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | G2 Esports | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | loss |
| LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | G2 Esports | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Top Esports | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
Elections 80% +$204
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 81¢ | 86¢ | +$10 | win |
| 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 88% +$198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin -12% daily candle change in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? | Silver | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-131 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | Up | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | Down | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-343 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | Up | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$981 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 20? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-668 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET | Up | 64¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
Economy 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Culture 40% $-245
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-252 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 49.7¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,574 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $3,601 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 45.4¢ | 100¢ | +$627 | $611 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $477 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $235 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $492 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 75.5¢ | 100¢ | +$278 | $2,246 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $750 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | $260 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 90¢ | +$105 | $584 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $2,790 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 55.1¢ | 10¢ | $-33 | $4,927 | 07/04/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 12.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3,487 | $1,258 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,382 | $8,662 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? | No | 67.3¢ | 100¢ | +$419 | $1,411 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$342 | $1,491 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 12.8¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $158 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 100¢ | +$268 | $847 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$241 | $2,084 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | No | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$72 | $102 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 28.2¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $185 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 52.9¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $372 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $2,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $378 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 5.7¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $118 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $233 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $115 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | $226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 27.6¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $844 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 18, 2026? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $168 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | No | 55.4¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $210 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | Yes | 67.5¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $135 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31? | Yes | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $380 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | No | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-179 | $241 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | $-318 | $627 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 34.9¢ | 0¢ | $-395 | $2,004 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $-499 | $929 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,513 | $1,555 | 31/03/2026 |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 65.4¢ | 100¢ | $-74 | $456 | 29/03/2026 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner | Bilibili Gaming | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $140 | 22/03/2026 |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | G2 Esports | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | $621 | 22/03/2026 |