Win rate
63.2%
560 W / 326 L
Total PnL
$366,292
realized $-203,314 · unrealized $569,605
Portfolio
$569,605
volume $25,111,897
Predictions
794
9.1/day · avg $31,627
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 61% +$222,750
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-2,400 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-1,275 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$3,177 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,215 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-2,694 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 90¢ | +$7,147 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 64¢ | 80¢ | $-134 | loss |
Other 66% +$78,963
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro guilty of all counts? | No | 41¢ | 78¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? | No | 77¢ | 94¢ | +$823 | win |
| Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$2,034 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 35¢ | $-237 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 80¢ | $-424 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 64¢ | 84¢ | +$975 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 62¢ | 78¢ | +$660 | win |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 68¢ | +$90 | win |
Politics 67% +$72,935
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2,761 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$1,366 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 63¢ | 84¢ | +$2,388 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | $-449 | loss |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | No | 55¢ | 84¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 96¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 65¢ | 42¢ | $-197 | loss |
Tech 85% +$7,372
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 90¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 66¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$480 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$301 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 69¢ | 0¢ | $-174 | loss |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1,626 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by October 31? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$697 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$575 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-2,145 | loss |
Economy 75% +$4,936
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-720 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$243 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$450 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$3,415 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$399 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$595 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-3,699 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$270 | win |
| Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-664 | loss |
Sports 80% +$1,344
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-788 | loss |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | Seahawks | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$415 | win |
| Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$1,650 | win |
Culture 20% $-96
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-143 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-320 | loss |
| Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-470 | loss |
Finance 33% $-2,081
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 82¢ | +$4 | win |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-181 | loss |
| Will the next James Bond be British? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-1,904 | loss |
Elections 52% $-7,756
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-2,291 | loss |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | Yes | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-926 | loss |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-3,315 | loss |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-458 | loss |
| Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-1,550 | loss |
| Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$2,347 | win |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$1,425 | win |
Crypto 63% $-11,865
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 65¢ | 60¢ | $-714 | loss |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Yes | 42¢ | 49¢ | +$1,857 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | 80¢ | 80¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-1,530 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-335 | loss |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$2,040 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$816 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 56.9¢ | 100¢ | +$715 | $4,487 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4,894 | $98,969 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,605 | $4,185 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$650 | $678 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 74.3¢ | 100¢ | +$559 | $5,364 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 67.9¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $707 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 71.0¢ | 20¢ | $-852 | $3,280 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 48.4¢ | 0¢ | $-1,694 | $10,560 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 20.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,839 | $5,096 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12,237 | $952 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 87.1¢ | 80¢ | $-445 | $20,542 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,445 | $12,555 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $4,600 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3,058 | $18,390 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,734 | $153,840 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 30.5¢ | 19¢ | $-957 | $4,575 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 84.0¢ | 81¢ | +$1,847 | $49,280 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-181 | $181 | 02/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11,149 | $116,415 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 79.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8,320 | $52,814 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7,764 | $172,795 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4,288 | $54,140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | No | 65.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,880 | $5,492 | 31/03/2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,680 | $8,910 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 77.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2,544 | $8,556 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,294 | $3,441 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,202 | $43,079 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 35.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,808 | $1,203 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 57.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,518 | $2,399 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,409 | $9,789 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,338 | $27,741 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1,275 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,062 | $16,537 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,033 | $14,590 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$990 | $2,010 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$983 | $4,539 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 100¢ | +$968 | $905 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 70.1¢ | 100¢ | +$936 | $4,556 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$910 | $8,800 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 63.5¢ | 0¢ | +$900 | $2,006 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$799 | $4,162 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 80.8¢ | 100¢ | +$785 | $4,528 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? | No | 67.5¢ | 100¢ | +$783 | $1,624 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$763 | $13,186 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$731 | $14,970 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 67.4¢ | 100¢ | +$706 | $9,429 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$681 | $154,617 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$610 | $777 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$600 | $1,901 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 66.9¢ | 100¢ | +$591 | $2,146 | 31/03/2026 |