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0x6D919DC76b665B688de5f637B212c0c214f97a49-1772151813957
0x6d919dc76b665b688de5f637b212c0c214f97a49 · polymarket profile ↗
Win rate
27.9%
17 W / 44 L
Total PnL
$-171
realized $-854 · unrealized $683
Portfolio
$683
volume $76,431
Predictions
84
2.4/day · avg $910
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 26% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 22¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-239 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 86¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 81¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 62¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 52¢ | 94¢ | +$32 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
Finance 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | No | 60¢ | 57¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 0% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 33% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 14¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 20¢ | +$79 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 75¢ | 52¢ | $-35 | loss |
Elections 0% $-23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 61¢ | 44¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 66¢ | 64¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4? | No | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
Crypto 40% $-94
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | Up | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29? | Yes | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Down | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Up | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Other 33% $-95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 38¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? | No | 71¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 65¢ | 46¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 74¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 60¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| US strikes Iraq by February 28? | Yes | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET | Up | 43.3¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 12.1¢ | 89¢ | +$540 | $265 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 39.3¢ | 100¢ | $-83 | $311 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | No | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $102 | 01/04/2026 |
| Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? | Yes | 59.1¢ | 100¢ | +$149 | $285 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 63.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $128 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | No | 76.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 57.2¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 14.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 50.1¢ | 50¢ | $-12 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 30.8¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $340 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 55.9¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 33.2¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $114 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29? | Yes | 66.4¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $281 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election? | No | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $54 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $64 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? | No | 38.7¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $32 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 4? | No | 89.0¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $84 | 07/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Down | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $35 | 03/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET | Up | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 03/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 63.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $40 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by February 28? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $30 | 09/01/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 61¢ | +$4 | $100 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 55¢ | $-2 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 46¢ | $-57 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 67.1¢ | 67¢ | $-0 | $150 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 74¢ | $-7 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 20¢ | +$79 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 89.4¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 74.0¢ | 97¢ | $-2 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 1¢ | $-14 | $70 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 75.1¢ | 52¢ | $-35 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 51.7¢ | 94¢ | +$32 | $250 | 15/05/2026 |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? | No | 71.4¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | $25 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 62.0¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | $30 | 30/06/2026 |