Win rate
83.3%
254 W / 51 L
Total PnL
$-3,229
realized $-49,778 · unrealized $46,549
Portfolio
$46,549
volume $1,044,869
Predictions
375
7.0/day · avg $2,786
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/06/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 77% +$1,023
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 60¢ | $-6 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $120 in March? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-601 | loss |
| Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Elections 84% +$500
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 50¢ | 55¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50¢ | 46¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
Sports 80% +$170
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| NBA to pass Luka Doncic’s “Extraordinary Circumstances Challenge”? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 34¢ | 28¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Tech 100% +$48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Microsoft reach $570 in November? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 64¢ | 67¢ | +$23 | win |
Culture 100% +$13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ‘The Fall-Off’ debut week album sales be less than 150k? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Mentions 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 0% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-5 | loss |
Weather 67% $-160
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4? | No | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
Politics 77% $-204
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 59¢ | 64¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 44¢ | 40¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | No | 89¢ | 86¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 85¢ | 1¢ | $-140 | loss |
Other 85% $-396
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 72¢ | 76¢ | +$5 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 81¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 91% $-4,276
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 75¢ | 82¢ | +$2 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 86¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 81¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | $34 | 18/04/2026 |
| Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | $1,035 | 17/04/2026 |
| Tomas Machac vs. Jannik Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 89.0¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | $89 | 16/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $2,368 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $44 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $47 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 94.0¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $47 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $5,898 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $1,560 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $443 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87.5¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,312 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,385 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $186 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,482 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $787 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? | No | 97.8¢ | 97¢ | +$9 | $684 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,973 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $1,150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 1¢ | +$3 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 12? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $697 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $47 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | $2,468 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $1,982 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | $990 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $414 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $85 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will March 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $2,423 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6,917 | $22,420 | 08/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5 | Under | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5,825 | $5,732 | 07/04/2026 |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $261 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $197 | 07/04/2026 |
| Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5 | Over | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | $-59 | $1,585 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 95.6¢ | 0¢ | $-4,748 | $5,259 | 07/04/2026 |
| Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5 | Over | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5,911 | $5,911 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $48 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $196 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $172 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 25.4¢ | 0¢ | $-89 | $89 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 4? | No | 88.1¢ | 0¢ | $-166 | $264 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $79 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $43 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $618 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $382 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $232 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $85 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Solana reach $120 in March? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $93 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $97 | 01/04/2026 |