tsel

Geopolitics 61% +$1,033 $17,112 vol · 114 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	34¢	70¢	+$24	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	57¢	84¢	+$10	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	26¢	30¢	+$5	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	76¢	100¢	$-12	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$2	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	Yes	16¢	0¢	+$1	win
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	87¢	91¢	+$1	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	50¢	16¢	$-1	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	51¢	24¢	$-2	loss

Politics 77% +$168 $1,820 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	38¢	39¢	+$4	win
Will Brooke Rollins be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	98¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	91¢	43¢	$-10	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	93¢	99¢	+$73	win
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	17¢	1¢	+$20	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	91¢	100¢	+$1	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	90¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump attend UFC 327?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	No	52¢	0¢	+$11	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-26	loss

Economy 100% +$29 $32 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?	No	21¢	86¢	+$29	win

Elections 100% +$11 $97 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	85¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win

Tech 50% +$3 $154 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google say "Wiz" during earnings call?	Yes	71¢	0¢	$-59	loss

Finance 0% $-5 $51 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	33¢	75¢	$-5	loss

Weather 0% $-25 $51 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm	St. Johns Red Storm	98¢	100¢	$-25	loss

Crypto 25% $-32 $322 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?	No	98¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	17¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20?	No	28¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 20?	Yes	76¢	0¢	$-57	loss

Other 58% $-57 $2,290 vol · 43 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	68¢	76¢	+$1	win
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?	Yes	35¢	28¢	$-3	loss
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	94¢	95¢	+$0	win
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	99¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will FalleN retire by June 1?	Yes	78¢	94¢	+$15	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	29¢	46¢	+$20	win
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament?	Yes	10¢	0¢	+$0	win