Win rate
43.2%
16 W / 21 L
Total PnL
$18
realized $-2,558 · unrealized $2,575
Portfolio
$2,575
volume $62,756
Predictions
39
1.1/day · avg $1,609
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 33% +$99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 78¢ | 75¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | win |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
Geopolitics 50% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$53 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 84¢ | 76¢ | +$18 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 20¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 33¢ | 6¢ | $-104 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 64¢ | 53¢ | $-235 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 70¢ | +$82 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Sports 0% $-34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 78¢ | 71¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
Other 38% $-118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? | No | 81¢ | 96¢ | +$52 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 45¢ | 6¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 85¢ | 82¢ | $-10 | loss |
Recent Trades (38)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 75.9¢ | 100¢ | +$415 | $1,308 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 92.7¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $929 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 83.0¢ | 7¢ | $-47 | $460 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $64 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $580 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 67.5¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $128 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $1,568 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 25.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 70.6¢ | 7¢ | $-73 | $592 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | $375 | 31/03/2026 |
| Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $91 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 84.6¢ | 82¢ | $-10 | $401 | 31/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $188 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | +$57 | $300 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $200 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 63.0¢ | 97¢ | +$148 | $382 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | No | 82.5¢ | 78¢ | $-55 | $1,000 | 19/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | No | 25.1¢ | 21¢ | $-16 | $100 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 79.0¢ | 70¢ | +$82 | $1,067 | 22/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 63.9¢ | 53¢ | $-235 | $1,383 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 23.3¢ | 20¢ | $-49 | $256 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? | No | 83.7¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | $536 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 36.0¢ | 20¢ | $-34 | $241 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | No | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 6¢ | $-44 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 33.0¢ | 6¢ | $-104 | $189 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 29.3¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 24.0¢ | 5¢ | $-5 | $155 | 15/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 84.0¢ | 76¢ | +$18 | $301 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 78.5¢ | 75¢ | $-36 | $644 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 78.2¢ | 71¢ | $-30 | $332 | 27/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 87.6¢ | 94¢ | +$53 | $1,348 | 30/06/2026 |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? | No | 80.9¢ | 96¢ | +$52 | $300 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | No | 13.0¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $50 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 92¢ | $-6 | $500 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 77.3¢ | 76¢ | $-13 | $788 | 31/12/2026 |