basedbasedmoma

Culture 56% +$5,168 $13,359 vol · 36 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	90¢	89¢	+$3	win
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	74¢	76¢	+$1	win
Tallahassee: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri	Pedro Boscardin Dias	44¢	100¢	+$31	win
Campinas: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Murkel Dellien	Murkel Dellien	43¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	79¢	100¢	+$141	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	69¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Rental Family win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Geopolitics 70% +$3,381 $111,124 vol · 139 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	86¢	86¢	$-1	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	48¢	30¢	+$70	win
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	No	72¢	88¢	+$65	win
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	86¢	90¢	+$9	win
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	88¢	90¢	+$4	win
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	+$0	—
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	86¢	94¢	+$30	win
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	No	92¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?	No	90¢	96¢	+$1	win

Elections 62% +$2,173 $48,751 vol · 138 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?	Yes	41¢	47¢	+$18	win
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat?	Yes	69¢	66¢	$-4	loss
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	43¢	34¢	+$6	win
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	35¢	52¢	+$121	win
Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	No	77¢	100¢	+$42	win
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and lose the 2026 Texas Senate General Election?	Yes	21¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	34¢	55¢	+$40	win
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and lose the 2026 Texas Senate General Election?	No	85¢	100¢	+$22	win
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?	No	96¢	97¢	+$21	win
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	52¢	66¢	+$16	win

Other 49% +$1,993 $179,278 vol · 497 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	Yes	45¢	8¢	$-2	loss
Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-78	loss
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	92¢	100¢	+$73	win
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?	No	88¢	90¢	$-201	loss
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	86¢	57¢	$-7	loss
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	No	86¢	90¢	+$9	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	No	59¢	0¢	$-0	loss
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	$-49	loss
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	26¢	22¢	$-39	loss
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?	No	83¢	86¢	+$3	win

Politics 70% +$927 $43,955 vol · 179 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes	56¢	69¢	+$42	win
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	29¢	21¢	$-13	loss
Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	80¢	87¢	$-20	loss
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	86¢	95¢	+$3	win
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	7¢	6¢	+$40	win
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	16¢	18¢	+$17	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11¢	10¢	+$15	win
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	Yes	3¢	5¢	+$15	win
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	14¢	12¢	+$15	win
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	84¢	92¢	+$8	win

Crypto 50% +$44 $282 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?	No	74¢	100¢	+$45	win
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Tech 80% +$17 $4,357 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Torpedo	Metallurg Magnitogorsk	77¢	100¢	$-18	loss
KHL: Torpedo vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk	Torpedo	34¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?	No	85¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$137	win
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?	No	10¢	0¢	+$32	win
Will Superman be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	No	84¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	84¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Ariana Grande be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?	No	86¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	No	33¢	100¢	+$0	win

Mentions 100% +$1 $99 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jay-Z be named in the Epstein survivors' list?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win

Weather 0% +$0 $1,735 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5	Over	49¢	100¢	+$0	—
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)	St. Johns Red Storm	51¢	0¢	+$0	—
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-3.5)	Kansas Jayhawks	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5	Under	50¢	0¢	+$0	—

Esports 47% $-120 $6,357 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner	Tundra Esports	71¢	68¢	$-71	loss
LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	SK Gaming	13¢	14¢	+$3	win
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner	Heroic	31¢	32¢	+$65	win
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	VARREL	32¢	0¢	+$10	win
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Top Esports	21¢	100¢	+$3	win
LoL: FALKE Esports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner	FALKE Esports	6¢	0¢	$-44	loss
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season	paiN Gaming	12¢	0¢	+$163	win
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season	FURIA Esports	87¢	100¢	$-159	loss
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Stage	FOKUS	65¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha	Paper Rex	73¢	0¢	+$-0	—

Finance 50% $-191 $5,871 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Janice Tjen vs Anna Bondar	Anna Bondar	52¢	50¢	$-192	loss
X and Truth Social merger announced before August?	No	94¢	100¢	+$1	win

Sports 36% $-1,613 $42,101 vol · 98 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	93¢	94¢	+$-0	—
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	93¢	99¢	+$13	win
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alycia Parks vs Noma Noha Akugue	Noma Noha Akugue	35¢	0¢	+$7	win
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Tamara Korpatsch vs Diana Shnaider	Tamara Korpatsch	17¢	0¢	+$2	win
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Alexandra Eala vs Leylah Fernandez	Leylah Fernandez	59¢	100¢	+$0	—
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Shuai Zhang vs Linda Noskova	Shuai Zhang	14¢	0¢	+$0	—
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Laura Siegemund vs Magdalena Frech	Magdalena Frech	53¢	50¢	$-36	loss
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Timberwolves	26¢	28¢	+$37	win
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Minnesota Twins	47¢	100¢	+$0	—
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5	Under	48¢	100¢	$-12	loss