Win rate
55.3%
42 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$12,836
realized $6,646 · unrealized $6,190
Portfolio
$6,190
volume $261,535
Predictions
298
6.4/day · avg $878
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 30/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 47% +$9,596
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 58¢ | 70¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 70¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 84¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 76¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 79¢ | 94¢ | $-16 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 80¢ | 72¢ | $-151 | loss |
Other 50% +$246
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 62¢ | 80¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 47¢ | 20¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 28¢ | 42¢ | +$152 | win |
Elections 33% +$188
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 65¢ | 66¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$211 | win |
Politics 67% +$107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 58¢ | 40¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 31¢ | 45¢ | +$86 | win |
Sports 100% +$105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 42¢ | 44¢ | +$105 | win |
Crypto 81% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | Up | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Down | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | Down | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | Down | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | Up | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | Up | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | Up | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Up | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Down | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | Up | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | Up | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $100 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET | Down | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $50 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET | Down | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 16/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 62.8¢ | 92¢ | +$197 | $1,234 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $800 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $550 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-233 | $2,547 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 100¢ | $-587 | $1,049 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | Down | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | Up | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $164 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | Up | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET | Up | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $200 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Up | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $220 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Down | 87.1¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | Up | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | Up | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | Down | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $109 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | Down | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $215 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | Down | 91.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | Up | 84.2¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 58.4¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $71 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 57.2¢ | 91¢ | +$3,415 | $22,403 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 100¢ | $-455 | $713 | 07/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $1,373 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $450 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $103 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $104 | 01/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 68.1¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $53 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $31 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 80.5¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $30 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | No | 75.4¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $24 | 14/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 39.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7,031 | $5,050 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$211 | $568 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $209 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will France strike Iran by March 31? | No | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $178 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $55 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | No | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $55 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $37 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $-707 | $859 | 01/01/1970 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 27.8¢ | 42¢ | +$152 | $1,607 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 45¢ | +$86 | $200 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 34.4¢ | 63¢ | +$61 | $106 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 42¢ | +$9 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 62¢ | +$55 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,026 | $6,866 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 63.2¢ | 94¢ | +$337 | $1,393 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 69.4¢ | 94¢ | +$100 | $1,301 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 82.4¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | $504 | 30/04/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 95.9¢ | 99¢ | $-6 | $356 | 30/04/2026 |