Win rate
53.3%
40 W / 35 L
Total PnL
$9,335
realized $-4,729 · unrealized $14,065
Portfolio
$14,065
volume $119,689
Predictions
85
2.7/day · avg $1,408
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 62% +$7,117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 15¢ | 25¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 81¢ | 75¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Lutfur Rahman win the 2026 London Borough of Tower Hamlets mayoral election? | Yes | 82¢ | 81¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election? | Yes | 71¢ | 62¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 83¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$2,489 | win |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 23¢ | 100¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 33% +$2,147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | Yes | 35¢ | 30¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? | Yes | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April? | Yes | 84¢ | 69¢ | $-9 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 66¢ | 98¢ | +$2,251 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$233 | win |
Geopolitics 65% +$657
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$250 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 72¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 32¢ | $-18 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 64¢ | 61¢ | $-22 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$16 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 40¢ | 30¢ | $-238 | loss |
Mentions 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 97¢ | +$6 | win |
Tech 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 80¢ | +$5 | win |
Crypto 0% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
Economy 50% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Politics 12% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 46¢ | 33¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 68¢ | 67¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 53¢ | $-4 | loss |
Weather 50% $-358
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? | Yes | 4.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 6.2¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-105 | $105 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 26.7¢ | 30¢ | +$193 | $1,748 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,489 | $6,150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 71.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,012 | $2,869 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$633 | $2,008 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | Yes | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$275 | $1,576 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 27.3¢ | 100¢ | +$266 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats? | No | 41.9¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | $172 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? | No | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | $444 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | No | 63.1¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $185 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $200 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $300 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $205 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? | No | 85.5¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $170 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 48%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $250 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | Yes | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $125 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93.9¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 83¢ | $-2 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 84.3¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be <65% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-77 | $943 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 100¢ | $-99 | $825 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 66.3¢ | 98¢ | +$2,251 | $4,654 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$233 | $973 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 29.7¢ | 16¢ | $-129 | $270 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 25.1¢ | 15¢ | $-44 | $110 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | $30 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $155 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $150 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $100 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-400 | $400 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | $300 | 09/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 40.1¢ | 30¢ | $-238 | $980 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | Yes | 36.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,014 | $1,180 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $350 | 30/11/2025 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | No | 86.5¢ | 90¢ | +$16 | $400 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 10¢ | +$33 | $30 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | No | 53.3¢ | 52¢ | $-4 | $250 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 97¢ | +$6 | $100 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 45.6¢ | 48¢ | +$53 | $60 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 84¢ | $-2 | $150 | 22/04/2026 |