Win rate
66.6%
1618 W / 811 L
Total PnL
$536,309
realized $48,686 · unrealized $487,623
Portfolio
$487,623
volume $26,306,463
Predictions
2,493
17.0/day · avg $10,552
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 70% +$283,458
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | +$331 | win |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 64¢ | 72¢ | +$1,100 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 91¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-13,850 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | $-580 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 18¢ | 8¢ | +$1,968 | win |
Geopolitics 66% +$123,901
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-232 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 18¢ | +$600 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-1,393 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | +$171 | win |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 97¢ | +$72 | win |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | Yes | 21¢ | 16¢ | +$22 | win |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 74¢ | +$6 | win |
Other 68% +$57,933
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 63¢ | +$251 | win |
| StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 60¢ | 96¢ | +$31 | win |
| Over $22M committed to the Space public sale? | No | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 16¢ | +$1,550 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 26¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 88¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 8¢ | $-112 | loss |
Economy 65% +$35,818
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 14¢ | 8¢ | +$300 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,955 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$1,371 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$404 | win |
| US recession in 2025? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | +$90 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-1,099 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$662 | win |
| Next BLS jobs report during government shutdown? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-12,396 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$878 | win |
Elections 57% +$30,016
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 22¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 58¢ | 92¢ | +$2,483 | win |
| Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | No | 53¢ | 70¢ | +$88 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 46¢ | 34¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 67¢ | 44¢ | +$-0 | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 68¢ | 48¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-1,557 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 37¢ | 39¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? | Yes | 82¢ | 88¢ | +$36 | win |
Tech 67% +$3,348
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | Yes | 80¢ | 78¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 60¢ | 93¢ | +$234 | win |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 62¢ | +$506 | win |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$205 | win |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? | No | 44¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | win |
Crypto 52% +$1,496
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Yes | 46¢ | 49¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$521 | win |
| U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | win |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-2,700 | loss |
Finance 89% +$854
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$128 | win |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$174 | win |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 75¢ | 95¢ | +$85 | win |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | No | 32¢ | 35¢ | +$9 | win |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 77¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$62 | win |
| Circle IPO in 2025? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will the next James Bond be British? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Circle IPO in 2025? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
Mentions 50% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kanye tweet again by March 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 1? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
Weather 100% +$48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
Culture 67% $-262
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | Yes | 47¢ | 58¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-449 | loss |
| Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$142 | win |
Sports 47% $-1,466
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$295 | win |
| Will Luxembourg win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Germany win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Netherlands win UEFA Group G for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will New England face Seattle in Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Detroit Lions make the playoffs? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-792 | loss |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$201 | win |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | No | 47¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26,999 | $116,368 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 36.3¢ | 100¢ | +$237 | $1,619 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$235 | $443 | 15/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | Yes | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $274 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.7¢ | 98¢ | $-4 | $1,820 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 59.1¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | $1,734 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 9.5¢ | 0¢ | $-518 | $604 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,832 | $5,457 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-14,673 | $25,403 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 52.7¢ | 86¢ | +$2,406 | $8,489 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$295 | $1,653 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 4.0¢ | 4¢ | +$259 | $66 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 41.1¢ | 4¢ | +$160 | $178 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 94¢ | +$23 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | Yes | 9.9¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $75 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $108 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 16.0¢ | 1¢ | $-189 | $197 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 96¢ | +$26 | $101 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78.0¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$503 | $317 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$468 | $1,267 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$222 | $8,060 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $73 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | $2,665 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Macron" or "France" during events with Rutte? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $104 | 08/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 86¢ | +$2,722 | $529 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,821 | $10,057 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | $426 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | $515 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 25.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,209 | $1,714 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bridge" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$219 | $510 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Movie star" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 34.8¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $84 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Slovakia win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $8,657 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Luxembourg win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $7,992 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Germany win UEFA Group A for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $6,919 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win UEFA Group G for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,161 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026? | Yes | 19.8¢ | 100¢ | +$332 | $110 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026? | No | 57.4¢ | 100¢ | +$151 | $203 | 04/04/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Down | 75.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $114 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on April 3, 2026? | No | 70.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $110 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on April 3, 2026? | Yes | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $74 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on April 3, 2026? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $36 | 03/04/2026 |
| John Daghita arrested by March 31? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$691 | $953 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 67.6¢ | 100¢ | +$435 | $905 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 63.3¢ | 100¢ | +$351 | $604 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$209 | $466 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | $394 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Military" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $340 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? | No | 75.1¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $250 | 01/04/2026 |