Win rate
64.7%
110 W / 60 L
Total PnL
$21,449
realized $20,554 · unrealized $895
Portfolio
$895
volume $5,582,792
Predictions
151
2.8/day · avg $36,972
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 63% +$9,418
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 70¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 35¢ | 33¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-18 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 10¢ | 12¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$427 | win |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 29¢ | 6¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | loss |
Other 65% +$7,365
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$943 | win |
| Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$294 | win |
| Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | loss |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | $-153 | loss |
Crypto 66% +$3,139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$471 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? | 90k | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$437 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$392 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$342 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $4,200.00 in December? | No | 29¢ | 100¢ | $-231 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$97 | win |
Elections 67% +$1,097
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$395 | win |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Trump wins every swing state? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 80% +$840
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Nancy" or "Pelosi" this week? (March 22) | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-163 | loss |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | +$936 | win |
| Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Tech 100% +$66
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
Sports 33% $-176
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 27.5¢ | 13¢ | +$353 | $1,100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 55.6¢ | 87¢ | +$17 | $316 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | $-362 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 36.9¢ | 86¢ | +$278 | $9,700 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 16.2¢ | 13¢ | $-74 | $711 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,246 | $1,095 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$1,186 | $1,534 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | +$379 | $1,043 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | No | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | +$296 | $2,079 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$215 | $1,880 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | Yes | 48.7¢ | 8¢ | +$166 | $1,173 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | +$142 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $1,684 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11? | No | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | +$43 | $259 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | No | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $132 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $212 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | No | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 30.4¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $131 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 62.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $468 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $281 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $180 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $83 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | No | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $225 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | Yes | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | $161 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $-211 | $141 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026? | No | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-376 | $334 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | No | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $-550 | $501 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Nancy" or "Pelosi" this week? (March 22) | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | $43 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$691 | $143 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | +$395 | $562 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$42 | $437 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $37 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February? | Yes | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | $1,003 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February? | Yes | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | +$94 | $691 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February? | Yes | 7.3¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | $115 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? | Yes | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $205 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $58 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $340 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February? | No | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $663 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$64 | $69 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$113 | $65 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? | No | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $309 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-163 | $300 | 08/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $52 | 31/01/2026 |
| Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $36 | 31/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1,365 | $173 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? | Yes | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | +$418 | $942 | 01/01/2026 |