St3f

Other 58% +$14,717 $230,782 vol · 517 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$31	win
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	91¢	92¢	+$2	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	68¢	47¢	$-76	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	18¢	8¢	$-89	loss
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	Yes	9¢	1¢	$-124	loss
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	3¢	$-32	loss
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	43¢	95¢	+$37	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	35¢	50¢	+$38	win
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$16	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	81¢	42¢	$-294	loss

Weather 69% +$1,634 $2,574 vol · 32 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 16?	No	82¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15?	No	91¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-49	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	No	31¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$44	win
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$53	win
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	No	93¢	100¢	+$6	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?	Yes	5¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in October 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Geopolitics 71% +$473 $28,593 vol · 85 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$36	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	42¢	72¢	+$1	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	0¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	40¢	18¢	$-88	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	62¢	26¢	+$452	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	56¢	31¢	$-51	loss
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	29¢	100¢	+$128	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	37¢	12¢	$-48	loss
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	91¢	96¢	+$2	win

Sports 68% +$263 $2,627 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Galions	42¢	100¢	+$29	win
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	Solary	41¢	0¢	$-33	loss
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs	Cloud9	72¢	100¢	+$79	win
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs	Sentinels	13¢	0¢	+$8	win
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	JD Gaming	29¢	0¢	$-29	loss
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs	Berlin International Gaming	33¢	100¢	+$162	win
LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs	NightBirds	90¢	100¢	+$19	win
LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs	BRUTE	2¢	0¢	$-63	loss
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs	G2 NORD	20¢	0¢	$-113	loss
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs	RED Canids	0¢	0¢	+$21	win

Politics 66% +$57 $5,927 vol · 32 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	25¢	27¢	+$4	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	88¢	92¢	+$1	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	17¢	8¢	$-30	loss
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31?	No	97¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?	No	0¢	0¢	+$76	win
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-93	loss
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$16	win
Will Trump say "Coal" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?	Yes	85¢	0¢	$-85	loss

Finance 100% +$11 $39 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?	No	78¢	100¢	+$11	win

Elections 57% $-7 $863 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	52¢	56¢	+$4	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	51¢	66¢	+$104	win
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$20	win
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-88	loss

Tech 42% $-96 $374 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will NVIDIA reach $184 in April?	Yes	56¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of February?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?	No	29¢	100¢	+$12	win
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$24	win

Mentions 52% $-466 $6,568 vol · 88 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?	No	73¢	84¢	+$5	win
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-54	loss
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?	No	86¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	30¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$43	win

Economy 43% $-696 $996 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-38	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-177	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-393	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-116	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$4	win

Esports 41% $-1,108 $13,578 vol · 115 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: CCG Esports vs Blue Otter - Game 2 Winner	CCG Esports	62¢	100¢	+$77	win
LoL: CCG Esports vs Blue Otter - Game 1 Winner	Blue Otter	9¢	0¢	$-79	loss
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner	RED Canids	77¢	100¢	+$11	win
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	GAM Esports	41¢	100¢	+$77	win
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	MVK Esports	11¢	0¢	$-21	loss
LoL: Maryville University vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season	NRG Esports	44¢	100¢	+$25	win
LoL: Maryville University vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season	Maryville University	46¢	0¢	$-21	loss
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	JD Gaming	15¢	0¢	$-49	loss
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner	Team Vitality	12¢	0¢	$-161	loss
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner	G2 Esports	17¢	0¢	$-5	loss

Culture 58% $-4,696 $52,193 vol · 239 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$-6	loss
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?	Yes	5¢	8¢	+$13	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	No	33¢	0¢	+$58	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$9	win
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-377	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$148	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	No	62¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	No	40¢	0¢	+$65	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$16	win

Crypto 38% $-6,465 $10,367 vol · 78 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	49¢	56¢	+$2	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	46¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	23¢	10¢	$-267	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-1,083	loss
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 10AM ET	Up	62¢	100¢	+$48	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9AM ET	Up	70¢	100¢	+$28	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6AM ET	Up	20¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8AM ET	Up	26¢	0¢	$-104	loss