simplystupid188

Geopolitics 55% +$3,937 $222,359 vol · 167 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$174	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$19	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$78	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	4¢	0¢	+$24	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	46¢	100¢	+$2	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	27¢	30¢	+$12	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	23¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	15¢	100¢	$-79	loss
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$-25	loss
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	14¢	31¢	+$30	win

Politics 80% +$3,898 $139,878 vol · 70 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2¢	2¢	+$2	win
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	21¢	21¢	+$143	win
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$58	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	86¢	100¢	+$91	win
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$6	win
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-15	loss
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	8¢	8¢	+$84	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	20¢	0¢	+$125	win
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	7¢	6¢	+$13	win

Other 58% +$3,663 $156,040 vol · 213 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$23	win
Genius FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	7¢	0¢	+$8	win
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	14¢	8¢	+$38	win
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	22¢	24¢	+$27	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$13	win
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes	4¢	5¢	+$6	win
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$-7	loss
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$14	win
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	7¢	7¢	+$27	win

Elections 68% +$2,118 $84,810 vol · 59 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	17¢	17¢	+$30	win
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$-3	loss
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	23¢	19¢	$-4	loss
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$-1	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	43¢	44¢	$-1	loss
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	42¢	40¢	+$12	win
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$-4	loss
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	37¢	+$39	win
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	11¢	10¢	$-3	loss
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-34	loss

Sports 68% +$869 $116,923 vol · 86 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	9¢	10¢	+$0	—
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	3¢	3¢	+$13	win
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$13	win
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	42¢	44¢	+$14	win
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	+$1	win
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	2¢	2¢	+$4	win
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-90	loss
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-66	loss
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	1¢	0¢	+$16	win

Tech 71% +$641 $2,900 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	No	3¢	0¢	+$212	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	1¢	1¢	$-2	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$17	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$58	win
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	0¢	0¢	+$59	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-53	loss
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$214	win

Culture 89% +$202 $1,793 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$18	win
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	1¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$105	win
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	No	1¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$26	win

Crypto 67% +$115 $470 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$-12	loss
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$123	win

Finance 71% +$97 $907 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-8	loss
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-16	loss
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027	Yes	17¢	20¢	+$43	win

Mentions 80% +$54 $862 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026?	Yes	13¢	14¢	+$6	win
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	13¢	14¢	+$0	win
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	12¢	15¢	+$16	win
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	7¢	100¢	+$34	win

Economy 45% +$48 $8,218 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	31¢	26¢	$-29	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	16¢	18¢	$-1	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	14¢	12¢	+$3	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$-25	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	9¢	8¢	+$2	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	1¢	1¢	$-31	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	1¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-48	loss