waterfall0

Politics 31% +$10,864 $2,772,771 vol · 86 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$-470	loss
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-207	loss
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	$-6,239	loss
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	$-192	loss
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	100¢	100¢	$-479	loss
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?	No	98¢	100¢	$-218	loss
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Tech 40% +$2,815 $385,529 vol · 34 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	89¢	90¢	$-203	loss
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	97¢	97¢	+$0	—
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	2¢	14¢	+$128	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	96¢	97¢	$-19	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	91¢	86¢	$-17	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-126	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	4¢	100¢	+$3,536	win
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$447	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	99¢	100¢	$-156	loss
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	—

Elections 32% +$135 $2,043,919 vol · 161 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	99¢	99¢	$-257	loss
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	99¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	2¢	7¢	+$139	win
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	98¢	96¢	$-162	loss
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	0¢	1¢	$-216	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	46¢	46¢	+$0	—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	66¢	66¢	$-27	loss
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	93¢	94¢	+$0	—

Geopolitics 57% +$26 $65,550 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	No	56¢	68¢	+$0	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	0¢	0¢	+$-0	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	5¢	100¢	+$357	win
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	$-379	loss
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	1¢	2¢	+$350	win
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	98¢	98¢	$-303	loss

Finance 71% +$8 $4,783 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition?	Yes	-0¢	1¢	+$0	win
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE?	No	93¢	100¢	$-4	loss

Culture 41% $-16 $849,171 vol · 83 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?	No	40¢	100¢	$-180	loss
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-153	loss
Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1,970	loss
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	96¢	100¢	$-640	loss
Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$18	win
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	92¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	40¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	$-340	loss

Mentions 30% $-793 $508,893 vol · 231 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?	No	89¢	100¢	$-106	loss
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?	Yes	—	0¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-143	loss
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?	No	47¢	0¢	$-473	loss
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-56	loss
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$-564	loss
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-125	loss

Crypto 0% $-2,571 $93,918 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament?	No	99¢	100¢	$-883	loss
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1,669	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 18?	No	97¢	100¢	$-19	loss

Economy 50% $-7,644 $1,768,324 vol · 50 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	93¢	98¢	$-147	loss
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	22¢	4¢	$-49	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	99¢	$-387	loss
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	2¢	+$459	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	48¢	99¢	+$262	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	$-3,080	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$61	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1,872	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$384	win
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-5,900	loss

Sports 37% $-13,949 $4,228,792 vol · 401 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$-41	loss
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	99¢	99¢	$-175	loss
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	3¢	1¢	+$231	win
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	3¢	3¢	+$282	win
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	93¢	93¢	$-336	loss
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	100¢	99¢	$-488	loss
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	98¢	98¢	$-384	loss
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	2¢	+$469	win
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	63¢	65¢	+$0	—
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$-1,081	loss

Other 29% $-16,348 $3,355,757 vol · 350 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-99	loss
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	No	98¢	98¢	$-2	loss
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	65¢	64¢	$-12	loss
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	6¢	1¢	+$163	win
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	+$28	win
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	$-339	loss
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	99¢	100¢	$-108	loss
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	50¢	7¢	+$0	—
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	50¢	93¢	+$0	—
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	No	93¢	95¢	$-45	loss