Win rate
55.6%
10 W / 8 L
Total PnL
$396
realized $-400 · unrealized $795
Portfolio
$795
volume $8,280
Predictions
17
0.6/day · avg $487
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 09/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 60% +$295
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 20¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 38¢ | 53¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 92¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 29¢ | 10¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 64¢ | 92¢ | +$61 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 33¢ | 36¢ | +$38 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 26¢ | +$18 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 20¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 32¢ | 19¢ | $-25 | loss |
Politics 50% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 39¢ | 34¢ | $-9 | loss |
Other 0% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25¢ | 24¢ | $-3 | loss |
Recent Trades (18)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 32.0¢ | 19¢ | $-25 | $130 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 24.1¢ | 19¢ | $-3 | $72 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 19.5¢ | 19¢ | $-4 | $97 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $98 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 70.9¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $189 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 20¢ | $-1 | $40 | 22/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 32.7¢ | 36¢ | +$38 | $344 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25.4¢ | 24¢ | $-3 | $86 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 27¢ | +$11 | $71 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 19.6¢ | 26¢ | +$18 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 34¢ | $-9 | $80 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 92¢ | +$61 | $139 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 28.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $65 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 58¢ | +$12 | $60 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 37.8¢ | 53¢ | +$96 | $150 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 75.0¢ | 92¢ | +$49 | $246 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 28.7¢ | 10¢ | $-34 | $95 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 20¢ | $-11 | $100 | 31/12/2026 |