Win rate
67.8%
6662 W / 3157 L
Total PnL
$10,238
realized $-2,394 · unrealized $12,632
Portfolio
$12,632
volume $1,882,286
Predictions
9,294
69.7/day · avg $203
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/07/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 68% +$26,082
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET | Down | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET | Down | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET | Up | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | Up | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET | Up | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET | Down | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | Up | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Down | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Up | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Geopolitics 73% +$1,163
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 78¢ | +$268 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 30¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 63¢ | 84¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 70¢ | 88¢ | +$7 | win |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$211 | win |
Politics 73% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 0% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 63¢ | 55¢ | $-4 | loss |
Other 83% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 34¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 93¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 65¢ | 80¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 48¢ | 52¢ | +$16 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 43¢ | 48¢ | +$24 | win |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 25% $-138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm | St. Johns Red Storm | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 14? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
Elections 56% $-342
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$849 | $1,139 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 58.9¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $109 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | $31 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $843 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $140 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $279 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $184 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $220 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 51.1¢ | 0¢ | $-604 | $702 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-168 | $172 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $691 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 56.9¢ | 91¢ | +$250 | $818 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 49.5¢ | 9¢ | $-44 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $60 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 78.2¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $247 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $77 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $38 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 99¢ | +$19 | $671 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $313 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $60 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $121 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $146 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $29 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 51.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $36 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $214 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $85 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$759 | $3,004 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $600 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 34.7¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 64.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,393 | $1,502 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 59.2¢ | 8¢ | $-251 | $436 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 92¢ | +$275 | $679 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$207 | $1,149 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $1,472 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 81.2¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $338 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $114 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $2,150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $403 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $673 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $89 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $157 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $73 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |