Win rate
46.6%
459 W / 526 L
Total PnL
$26,124
realized $23,543 · unrealized $2,582
Portfolio
$2,582
volume $3,187,713
Predictions
1,686
13.4/day · avg $1,891
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 42% +$9,906
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5¢ | 7¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | Yes | 20¢ | 23¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 12¢ | 18¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 66¢ | 55¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | $-9 | loss |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | US Strikes Iran | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? | Yes | 10¢ | 6¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-249 | loss |
Geopolitics 54% +$5,973
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 70¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 9¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-135 | loss |
| Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-197 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 4¢ | $-36 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 24¢ | +$160 | win |
Other 50% +$2,820
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | No | 67¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 8¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 20¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 16¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 96¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $-43 | loss |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 54¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$124 | win |
Weather 52% +$1,562
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | Yes | 64¢ | 80¢ | +$166 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26? | No | 47¢ | 48¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | No | 30¢ | 14¢ | $-78 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-304 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-264 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
Crypto 28% +$1,198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 17? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 16? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 9-15? | Yes | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$405 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 16? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 14? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 13? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-284 | loss |
Tech 41% +$1,179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-108 | loss |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-103 | loss |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$282 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 7? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Yes | 5¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Mentions 35% +$930
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 10? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will Elon tweet less than 200 times September 5–12? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 210–239 times August 8–August 15? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 200–214 times May 30–June 6? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 44% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 9¢ | 40¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | Yes | 35¢ | 8¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | No | 75¢ | 92¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-248 | loss |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
Culture 50% $-17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
Finance 60% $-53
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by August 31? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by August 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | loss |
Sports 38% $-56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 5¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 13¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$229 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-208 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in December? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | loss |
Economy 40% $-134
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 18, 2026? | No | 9.0¢ | 24¢ | $-5 | $27 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | $125 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $192 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 17/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 6.2¢ | 82¢ | +$876 | $124 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $65 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | +$120 | $229 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | +$36 | $185 | 15/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $542 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $440 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | $-238 | $488 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $-339 | $467 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 94.2¢ | 19¢ | $-882 | $1,884 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? | No | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | $-304 | $409 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$603 | $30 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 13.2¢ | 100¢ | +$283 | $50 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 26.1¢ | 0¢ | +$98 | $458 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $23 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? | Yes | 38.1¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $76 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 19.1¢ | 100¢ | $-187 | $358 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | $-296 | $545 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 26.4¢ | 0¢ | +$236 | $395 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 28.5¢ | 81¢ | +$107 | $1,277 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | Yes | 20.3¢ | 0¢ | +$72 | $49 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 61.8¢ | 19¢ | +$6 | $309 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | $-108 | $229 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-237 | $1,470 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$342 | $343 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | $145 | 05/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | +$76 | $24 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 05/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-78 | $178 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-264 | $264 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 3? | Yes | 71.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $33 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-103 | $208 | 03/04/2026 |
| John Daghita arrested by March 31? | Yes | 16.9¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $71 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $94 | 01/04/2026 |
| Kristi Noem out by March 31? | Yes | 14.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,183 | $403 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 22.8¢ | 100¢ | +$388 | $119 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 22.1¢ | 100¢ | +$383 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026? | Yes | 14.6¢ | 0¢ | +$340 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$323 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? | Yes | 43.1¢ | 100¢ | +$316 | $240 | 31/03/2026 |
| GPT ads by March 31? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 100¢ | +$282 | $215 | 31/03/2026 |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 100¢ | +$281 | $93 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $448 | 31/03/2026 |