0x65484B65936FAe40b0d4982479b29320b85E9108-1744200090360

Weather 83% +$281 $3,719 vol · 53 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	42¢	19¢	$-23	loss
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18?	No	70¢	72¢	+$2	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17?	No	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 16?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 15?	No	86¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14?	No	95¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 13?	No	89¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 12?	No	81¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 11?	No	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on April 8?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Other 68% +$277 $1,595 vol · 37 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	79¢	93¢	+$0	win
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	Yes	56¢	31¢	$-1	loss
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	80¢	93¢	+$4	win
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	55¢	52¢	$-2	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$51	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	64¢	49¢	+$8	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?	No	85¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of January?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$11	win

Elections 100% +$132 $430 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	3¢	4¢	+$16	win
French election called by December 31?	No	71¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?	No	77¢	100¢	+$6	win

Geopolitics 86% +$131 $288 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$61	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?	No	51¢	50¢	$-1	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	No	25¢	0¢	+$27	win
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$4	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	No	85¢	100¢	+$0	win

Economy 57% +$11 $266 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-8	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$10	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$12	win
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$1	win

Finance 100% +$7 $27 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	76¢	100¢	+$7	win

Culture 100% +$6 $24 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$6	win

Crypto 60% +$4 $660 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	Yes	54¢	100¢	$-39	loss
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	No	63¢	0¢	$-15	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	62¢	100¢	+$40	win

Tech 86% $-9 $325 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?	Yes	89¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$4	win

Politics 33% $-53 $179 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	69¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?	No	44¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 28?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?	Yes	48¢	100¢	$-16	loss
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?	No	20¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?	No	85¢	100¢	+$7	win