WalterSobchack

Culture 47% +$2,052 $45,088 vol · 50 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	77¢	100¢	$-274	loss
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	82¢	100¢	$-348	loss
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$62	win
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	84¢	100¢	$-62	loss
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$821	win
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	82¢	100¢	$-78	loss
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	85¢	100¢	$-125	loss
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	25¢	0¢	+$106	win
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	82¢	100¢	$-124	loss

Politics 57% +$63 $17,925 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	75¢	92¢	+$127	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	41¢	8¢	$-124	loss
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	20¢	14¢	$-28	loss
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	50¢	10¢	$-24	loss
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	15¢	10¢	$-11	loss
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	50¢	52¢	+$1	win
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by June 30, 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	11¢	8¢	$-12	loss
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?	Yes	71¢	74¢	+$12	win

Finance 33% $-7 $152 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?	Down	40¢	100¢	+$27	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11?	Up	65¢	0¢	$-27	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9?	Down	41¢	100¢	$-7	loss

Sports 60% $-12 $1,034 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$-8	loss
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	93¢	93¢	$-9	loss
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win

Crypto 85% $-57 $15,774 vol · 22 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-123	loss
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$-92	loss
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	72¢	97¢	+$105	win
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?	No	97¢	100¢	$-63	loss
Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$11	win

Economy 60% $-59 $3,104 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	50¢	100¢	$-94	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	90¢	100¢	$-126	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Geopolitics 51% $-392 $41,780 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	49¢	100¢	+$5	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	47¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	78¢	80¢	+$144	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	21¢	20¢	$-109	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	39¢	30¢	$-22	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	58¢	70¢	+$62	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$70	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	60¢	0¢	$-184	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	79¢	92¢	+$165	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	85¢	92¢	+$129	win

Other 51% $-1,291 $67,575 vol · 143 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	50¢	98¢	+$0	—
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	8¢	3¢	$-25	loss
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	No	95¢	100¢	$-78	loss
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$185	win
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?	No	82¢	100¢	+$84	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	19¢	16¢	+$62	win
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	73¢	95¢	+$46	win
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-26	loss
US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	74¢	78¢	$-1	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	58¢	96¢	+$4	win

Elections 59% $-4,102 $42,977 vol · 99 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	29¢	24¢	$-29	loss
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	50¢	94¢	+$48	win
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	44¢	42¢	+$3	win
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	50¢	58¢	+$12	win
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	61¢	64¢	+$96	win
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	50¢	46¢	$-19	loss
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	50¢	6¢	$-88	loss
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	38¢	36¢	$-110	loss
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	50¢	46¢	$-19	loss
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	40¢	42¢	+$2	win