Win rate
88.5%
115 W / 15 L
Total PnL
$555
realized $-2,008 · unrealized $2,563
Portfolio
$2,563
volume $33,935
Predictions
982
29.9/day · avg $35
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 82% +$417
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 24¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 93¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 97% +$137
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Gemini 3.5 released by April 30? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? | No | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 74¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 100% +$110
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | win |
Politics 100% +$95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April? | No | 35¢ | 60¢ | +$22 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Trump say "Low Energy" in March? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | No | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29) | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Economy 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 100% +$15
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Tech 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by March 15? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $39 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 59.0¢ | 98¢ | +$10 | $28 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 78.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 79.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 46.4¢ | 9¢ | $-7 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 63.9¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $20 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $31 | 13/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $75 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $41 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $42 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $23 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $73 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Shadow Secretary" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 78.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $37 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$81 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 21, 2026? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $53 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | 89.8¢ | 0¢ | +$33 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 94.1¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 70.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" in March? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 85.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $77 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? | No | 72.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Stinky by March 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $39 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? | No | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31? | No | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |