grinchmas

Other 31% +$97 $1,774 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	43¢	41¢	$-25	loss
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?	Yes	7¢	1¢	$-20	loss
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	9¢	15¢	$-34	loss
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?	Yes	17¢	13¢	$-37	loss
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$-68	loss
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	6¢	1¢	$-83	loss
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac	Tomas Machac	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?	Yes	32¢	0¢	+$14	win
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	7¢	100¢	+$405	win
Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche	Luca Van Assche	48¢	0¢	$-98	loss

Finance 0% $-54 $100 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?	Yes	61¢	100¢	$-54	loss

Geopolitics 41% $-196 $2,377 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	43¢	22¢	+$38	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	48¢	76¢	$-17	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	45¢	24¢	$-41	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	43¢	5¢	+$47	win
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?	Yes	14¢	86¢	+$7	win
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Yes	61¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	18¢	1¢	$-24	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	34¢	93¢	$-26	loss
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	30¢	10¢	$-36	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$156	win

Sports 0% $-246 $500 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	24¢	66¢	$-2	loss
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	56¢	55¢	$-3	loss
Will UConn win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament?	No	62¢	100¢	$-240	loss

Politics 23% $-517 $2,648 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	62¢	100¢	$-30	loss
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?	Yes	16¢	4¢	$-11	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	52¢	32¢	$-30	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	43¢	62¢	$-79	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	48¢	24¢	$-71	loss
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	16¢	1¢	$-238	loss
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	29¢	42¢	+$45	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?	Yes	43¢	8¢	$-23	loss
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?	Yes	8¢	0¢	+$20	win

Crypto 42% $-4,359 $35,716 vol · 410 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	49¢	100¢	+$52	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	50¢	100¢	+$50	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	50¢	100¢	+$50	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	50¢	100¢	+$50	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	51¢	100¢	+$48	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	52¢	100¢	+$46	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	57¢	100¢	+$37	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	50¢	0¢	$-51	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	50¢	0¢	$-51	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	48¢	0¢	$-48	loss