Win rate
73.3%
11 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$314
realized $-4,980 · unrealized $5,294
Portfolio
$5,294
volume $20,729
Predictions
16
0.5/day · avg $1,296
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 75% +$619
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 90¢ | 40¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 12¢ | 60¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 38¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | win |
Other 83% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 63¢ | 69¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Geopolitics 60% $-301
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$70 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-648 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | loss |
Recent Trades (15)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $1,909 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $42 | 03/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 58.5¢ | 100¢ | +$356 | $502 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 38.2¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $49 | 29/03/2026 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 29/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $472 | 03/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 0¢ | $-104 | $104 | 31/01/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 63.1¢ | 69¢ | +$6 | $66 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 43.3¢ | 0¢ | $-648 | $1,046 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 10.3¢ | 60¢ | +$545 | $113 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 60¢ | +$59 | $33 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 90.0¢ | 40¢ | $-2 | $141 | 26/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 92.0¢ | 94¢ | +$70 | $4,260 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | $186 | 31/12/2026 |