Geminae.Columbae

Geopolitics 32% +$17,823 $92,024 vol · 37 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-30	loss
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	21¢	12¢	$-53	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	23¢	0¢	$-119	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	55¢	20¢	$-423	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	42¢	30¢	$-2,787	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	12¢	8¢	$-8,612	loss
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	28¢	16¢	$-2,261	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$5,953	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	5¢	1¢	$-2,695	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	25¢	34¢	+$825	win

Other 42% +$3,738 $26,652 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	19¢	16¢	$-689	loss
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	41¢	36¢	$-69	loss
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	52¢	34¢	$-1,397	loss
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?	No	71¢	100¢	+$1,204	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	Yes	33¢	0¢	+$34	win
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	75¢	0¢	$-132	loss
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?	No	34¢	100¢	+$5,516	win
Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$47	win

Politics 67% +$663 $20,242 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-1,280	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	30¢	100¢	+$172	win

Elections 38% +$304 $10,875 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	64¢	66¢	+$232	win
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?	Yes	63¢	100¢	+$88	win
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election?	No	59¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?	Yes	60¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	49¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?	No	53¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?	Yes	54¢	100¢	$-11	loss

Weather 0% $-21 $21 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-21	loss

Economy 25% $-3,934 $6,491 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-59	loss
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?	No	86¢	100¢	+$26	win
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-1,535	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-418	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?	No	49¢	0¢	$-30	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-509	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?	No	40¢	100¢	$-36	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	39¢	100¢	$-42	loss