Win rate
69.1%
38 W / 17 L
Total PnL
$-214
realized $-858 · unrealized $644
Portfolio
$644
volume $76,140
Predictions
911
33.3/day · avg $84
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 70% +$88
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 76¢ | +$18 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 81¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 100% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Finance 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Crypto 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Politics 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-0 | loss |
Sports 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $-0 | loss |
Weather 50% $-52
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 49°F or below on March 25? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 49°F or below on March 25? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
Other 69% $-62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 37¢ | $-0 | loss |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29¢ | 60¢ | +$14 | win |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 83¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5) | Florida Gators | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars | Texas Longhorns | 42¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $25 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $35 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 83.1¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.5¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | $48 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 85.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $30 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 51.7¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $134 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 63.4¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $119 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 87.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 49°F or below on March 25? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $27 | 25/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 49°F or below on March 25? | Yes | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $54 | 25/03/2026 |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $39 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $46 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5) | Florida Gators | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 22/03/2026 |
| Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars | Texas Longhorns | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $25 | 19/03/2026 |
| Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $24 | 19/03/2026 |
| North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 19/03/2026 |
| Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 19/03/2026 |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 19/03/2026 |
| Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs | Kennesaw State Owls | 6.8¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 19/03/2026 |
| Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | Penn Quakers | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 19/03/2026 |
| Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | Panathinaikós AO | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike UAE again in March? | Yes | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $24 | 07/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 67.6¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $25 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $77 | 01/01/1970 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 60¢ | +$14 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 95.0¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $24 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 67.7¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $32 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $64 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96.9¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $35 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $45 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $21 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $32 | 15/05/2026 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 38.3¢ | 37¢ | $-0 | $21 | 16/05/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $23 | 30/06/2026 |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $21 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 89.2¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | $98 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6.9¢ | 7¢ | $-0 | $20 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 85.8¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | $23 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77.4¢ | 81¢ | +$3 | $37 | 31/12/2026 |