george6688

Geopolitics 54% +$458 $12,234 vol · 36 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	9¢	9¢	$-3	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	45¢	45¢	+$0	—
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	40¢	0¢	+$68	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	61¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-2	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	15¢	53¢	$-6	loss
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	88¢	64¢	$-10	loss
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?	No	93¢	100¢	+$92	win
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$60	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	Yes	20¢	0¢	+$7	win

Other 50% +$165 $3,372 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	52¢	30¢	$-38	loss
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	8¢	8¢	+$0	—
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?	No	94¢	100¢	+$203	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?	No	92¢	100¢	$-1	loss

Politics 40% $-4,544 $69,957 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	47¢	38¢	$-5,614	loss
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	22¢	14¢	$-18	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	94¢	100¢	+$68	win
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$1	win